Posted at 16 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Core CPI Index (Dec) 323.38, 323.40 forecast, 322.66 previous
• US CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.7% previous
• US CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Dec) 315.61, 315.62 forecast, 315.49 previous
• US CPI Index, s.a. (Dec) 317.69, 316.44 previous
• US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Dec) 0.04%, -0.05% previous
• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan) -12.60, 2.70 forecast, 2.10 previous
• US Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec) -0.1%, 0.1% previous
• Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.8%, 0.4% forecast, 2.1% previous
• Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, -0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories -1.962M, -3.500M forecast, -0.959M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 23:50 Japan PPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%forecast, 0.3% previous
•23:50 Japan PPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.8%forecast, 3.7% previous
•00:00 Australia MI Inflation Expectations 4.2% previous
•00:30 Australia Employment Change (Dec) 14.5K, 35.6K previous
•00:30 Australia Full Employment Change (Dec) 52.6K previous
•00:30 Australia Participation Rate (Dec) 67.0%, 67.0% previous
•00:30 Australia Reserve Assets Total (Dec) 98.3B previous
•00:30 Australia Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.0%, 3.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Released
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro initially gained against the dollar on Wednesday but gave up ground as euro was pressured as dollar selling slowed as market digested US CPI data. U.S. CPI rose at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, in line with expectations. Markets cheered the core inflation number that rose by 3.2%, however was below forecasts. Traders now expect close to 40 basis points (bps) in rate cuts from the Fed this year, from around 30 bps before the inflation data. On the data front, France's consumer prices increased by 1.8% year-on-year, while Spain's EU-harmonised inflation rate reached 2.8%. Meanwhile, Germany's economy contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024, according to a separate report. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0274(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0326(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0217(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0197(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound held on to a modest gain on Wednesday as a report that annualized British inflation slowed to 2.5% in December helped stabilize a jittery gilt market. British inflation slowed unexpectedly last month and core measures of price growth - tracked by the Bank of England - fell more sharply, according to official data.The annual rate of inflation edged down to 2.5% in December from 2.6% in November, the Office for National Statistics said, in contrast to economists' expectations in a Reuters poll for it to remain unchanged. Investors increased their bets on the BoE cutting rates, putting an 84% chance on a first quarter-point reduction on Feb. 6, the date of its next scheduled monetary policy announcement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2237(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2314(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2083(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000(Psychological level)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar rose for the third day in a row on Wednesday, but its gains were capped as concerns over upcoming U.S. trade tariffs overshadowed weaker-than-expected U.S. core inflation figures. The U.S. core consumer price index, excluding food and energy, eased to 3.2% in December from 3.3% in November, fueling expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, oil prices, a key Canadian export, surged 2.8% to $79.64 per barrel due to a significant drop in U.S. crude inventories and potential supply disruptions from new U.S. sanctions on Russia. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.4335 to the U.S. dollar, or 69.76Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4478(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4303(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4157 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday as the yen benefitted from its safe-haven appeal and growing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January. The BOJ noted that broadening wage hikes in Japan, driven by structural labor shortages, are pushing firms to continue increasing pay. This suggests that conditions for a near-term interest rate hike are falling into place. The BOJ has consistently stated that sustained, broad-based wage hikes are necessary before raising short-term interest rates from the current 0.25%, with some analysts speculating that a rate hike could come as soon as its policy meeting later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.59 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.11(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares surged over 1% on Wednesday as U.S. inflation data aligned with expectations, boosting prospects for a second Federal Reserve rate cut this year.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up at 1.21 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 1.50 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.69 percent.
U.S. stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, posting their strongest gains in over two months, as cooling December core inflation and upbeat bank earnings boosted investor confidence.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.66 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.83 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 2.45percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Wednesday as dollar weakened followed softer-than-expected U.S. core inflation data, easing inflation concerns and renewing hopes that the Federal Reserve may continue its easing cycle.
Spot gold gained 0.6% to $2,693.63 per ounce by 02:23 p.m. ET (1923 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.3% higher at $2,717.80.
Oil prices climbed over 2% on Wednesday, driven by a significant drop in U.S. crude stockpiles and concerns over potential supply disruptions from new U.S. sanctions on Russia. However, gains were capped by a Gaza ceasefire agreement.
Brent crude futures settled $2.11, or 2.64%, higher at $82.03 a barrel, the highest since August 2024. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled up $2.54, or 3.28%, at $80.04 a barrel, the highest since July.