Posted at 15 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.2%, 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.5% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK 07:00 GBP Core PPI Output (MoM) (Dec) 0.0%, 0.0% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.6% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.9%, 3.0% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.5%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Dec) 135.60, 135.10 previous
•UK CPIH (YoY) 3.5%, 3.5% previous
•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Dec) -1.5%, -1.3% forecast, -2.1% previous
•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, -0.5% previous
•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Sweden CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Sweden CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Dec) 1.5%, 1.5% forecast, 1.8% previous
• German WPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.1%, -0.6% previous
•German WPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•French CPI NSA (YoY) (Dec) 1.30%, 1.30% previous
•French CPI NSA (MoM) (Dec) 0.20%, 0.20% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%, 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
• EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -1.9%, -1.9% forecast, -1.1% previous
•EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
•13:30 US Core CPI Index (Dec) 323.40 forecast, 322.66 previous
•13:30 US CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.9% forecast, 2.7% previous
•13:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Dec) 315.62 forecast, 315.49 previous
•13:30 US CPI Index, s.a (Dec) 316.44 previous
•13:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Dec) -0.05% previous
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jan) 2.70 forecast, 0.20 previous
•13:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.4% forecast, 2.1% previous
•13:30 Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Nov) 163.6K previous
•13:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•15:30 UD Crude Oil Inventories -3.500M, -0.959M previous
Looking Events And Other Release (GMT)
•15:00 US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded in a tight range against the dollar on Wednesday as traders remained cautious ahead of the U.S. consumer inflation report due at 13:30 GMT. The data follows last week's strong jobs report, which highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy and led to reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve easing. On Tuesday, U.S. producer price data showed moderate increases for December, reinforcing the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the second half of the year, given the strength of the labor market. The euro was down 0.10% at $1.0299. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0216(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Wednesday as investors are focused on upcoming U.S.inflation data for clues on the US rate trajectory. The U.S. headline consumer price index (CPI) is likely to have risen by 0.3% month-on-month in December, and the core gauge by 0.2%, per a poll conducted by Reuters. Headline CPI likely rose 3% year-on-year.The data comes days after a blowout jobs report prompted traders to further rein in their expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Rate futures indicate only one rate cut this year, half the number the Fed projected last month.The sticky U.S. inflation alongside worries over Trump's planned trade and fiscal policies has prompted investors to reassess the rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2249(Jan 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2294(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2172(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2092(Lower BB)
AUD/USD:The Australian dollar saw modest gains on Wednesday as traders adjusted positions ahead of key risk events. Market focus is on U.S. CPI data due later in the day, Australia’s employment report on Thursday, and China’s economic releases on Friday. According to a analyts, U.S. headline CPI likely increased by 0.3% MoM and core CPI by 0.2% in December, with headline CPI up 3% YoY. On Tuesday, the Aussie benefited from a weaker U.S. dollar following softer-than-expected producer inflation data. As of 13:09 GMT, the Australian dollar was slightly down 0.08%, trading at $0.6198. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6207(Jan 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6133(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6119(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday as the yen attracted buyers after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda .The Bank of Japan will consider raising interest rates and adjusting monetary support if economic and price conditions continue to improve, Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday. Speaking at a gathering of regional banks, Ueda highlighted that the timing of a rate hike will depend on the economic policies of the new U.S. administration and the outcomes of this year’s wage negotiations in Japan. At GMT 13:11 the pair was trading down 0.57 percent at 157.03.Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.10 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.78(Jan 10th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.02(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.75 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Wednesday, supported by easing bond yields ahead of key U.S. inflation data. British stocks outperformed, buoyed by a softer-than-expected local inflation reading.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.71 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.54 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields eased, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate path.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,687.59 per ounce by 1107 GMT. U.S. gold futures were up more than 1% at $2,710.00.
Oil prices crept higher on Wednesday as the market focused on potential supply disruptions from sanctions on Russian tankers, though gains were tempered by a lack of clarity on their impact.
Brent crude futures rose 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.08 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 26 cents, or 0.34%, at $77.76.