Posted at 15 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•07:00 UK Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•07:00 UK Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Dec) 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Dec) 1.6% previous
•07:00 UK Core RPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK Core RPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.0% previous
•07:00 UK CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•07:00 UK CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:00 UK CPI, n.s.a (Dec) 135.10 previous
•07:00 UK CPIH (YoY) 3.5% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Input (YoY) (Dec) -1.3% forecast, -1.9% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Input (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Output (MoM) (Dec) 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Output (YoY) (Dec) 0.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
•07:00 UK RPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.8% forecast, 3.6% previous
•07:00 UK RPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.7% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:45 French CPI NSA (MoM) (Dec) 0.20% previous
•07:45 French CPI NSA (YoY) (Dec) 1.30% previous
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Dec) 1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -1.9% forecast, -1.2% previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro treaded in tight range against the dollar on Wednesday as traders turned cautious ahead of a closely watched U.S. consumer inflation report due later in the day. U.S. consumer inflation data is due at 1330 GMT, will be closely watched by market participants after last week's blowout jobs report underlined the strength of the U.S. economy and led traders to heavily pare back bets of further Fed easing.Data on Tuesday showed U.S. producer prices increased moderately in December, but that is unlikely to change views that the Fed would not cut interest rates again before the second half of this year amid labour market resilience. The euro was down 0.09% at $1.0297. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0327(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0378(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0216(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Wednesday as investors are focused on U.S. and UK inflation data on Wednesday for clues on the rate trajectory. The U.S. headline consumer price index (CPI) is likely to have risen by 0.3% month-on-month in December, and the core gauge by 0.2%, per a poll conducted by Reuters. Headline CPI likely rose 3% year-on-year.The data comes days after a blowout jobs report prompted traders to further rein in their expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Rate futures indicate only one rate cut this year, half the number the Fed projected last month.The sticky U.S. inflation alongside worries over Trump's planned trade and fiscal policies has prompted investors to reassess the rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2249(Jan 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2294(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2172(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2092(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Wednesday as traders adjusted positions ahead of risk events. Traders await U.S. CPI data later on Wednesday, Australia's employment report on Thursday, and China's economic releases on Friday. The U.S. headline consumer price index (CPI) is likely to have risen by 0.3% month-on-month in December, and the core gauge by 0.2%, per a poll conducted by Reuters. Headline CPI likely rose 3% year-on-year. Australian gained on Tuesday as the US dollar weakened after softer-than-expected US producer inflation data. At GMT 04:52, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.01% to $0.6193. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6207(Jan 14th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6133(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6119(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday as the yen attracted buyers after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda .The Bank of Japan will consider raising interest rates and adjusting monetary support if economic and price conditions continue to improve, Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday. Speaking at a gathering of regional banks, Ueda highlighted that the timing of a rate hike will depend on the economic policies of the new U.S. administration and the outcomes of this year’s wage negotiations in Japan. At GMT 06:01 the pair was trading down 0.42 percent at 157.26.Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.10 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.78(Jan 10th high). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.17(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.75 (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asia shares subdued on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could potentially shift the monetary policy outlook
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.09% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.02%, Hang Seng was up by 0.17%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as caution prevailed ahead of the U.S. consumer price inflation report that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $2,675.72 per ounce by 0533 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,690.60.
Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses as attention shifted to potential supply disruptions caused by sanctions on Russian tankers
Brent crude futures edged up 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.03 a barrel by 0515 GMT, after dropping 1.4% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.73 a barrel after a 1.6% decline.