Posted at 13 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss SECO Consumer Climate -30,-38 forecast ,-37 previous
•Greek CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.6%,2.4%previous
•Greek HICP (YoY) (Dec) 2.9%, 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.435% previous
•14:00 French French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.704% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.592% previous
•15:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Dec) 109.55 previous
•16:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Dec) 3.0% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.205% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.110% previous
•19:00 US Federal Budget Balance (Dec) -67.6B forecast, -367.0B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Monday as last week's strong payrolls data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month. The U.S. economy added more jobs than anticipated in December, strengthening expectations that borrowing costs in the U.S. will stay elevated for an extended period, which boosted the dollar and pushed U.S. Treasury yields to multi-month highs. The dollar has been on the rise ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. The euro was down 0.33% at $1.0206 after touching its weakest since November 2022 at $1.0177. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0274(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0326(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0217(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0197(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound extended its recent drop on Monday as investor were concerned about Britain's fiscal sustainability as gilt yields rose for a sixth straight day. The pound has faced significant pressure from global currency traders as British markets were affected by rising bond yields, a trend that started in the U.S. due to concerns over rising inflation and reduced expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Sterling fell as much as 0.7% against the dollar to $1.21, its lowest level since November 2023. Strong U.S. labor market data released on Friday further fueled the rise in global bond yields, with money markets now no longer fully expecting any rate cuts from the Fed this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2220(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.233(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2083(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2000(Psychological level)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar held near recent lows on Monday as dollar remained bid after unexpectedly robust U.S. jobs report, prompted markets to scale back expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year to just one. A robust U.S. jobs report prompted markets to sharply reduce expectations for Federal Reserve easing in 2025 to 27 basis points from around 45 basis points previously. Looking ahead, Australia's employment report due on Wednesday is expected to show a slight increase in the jobless rate for December. Forecasts predict a modest rise of 10,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.0% from 3.9%. At GMT 13:19, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.06% to $0.6150. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6207(Jan 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6133(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6119(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday as the yen benefitted from its safe-haven appeal and growing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in January. The BOJ noted that broadening wage hikes in Japan, driven by structural labor shortages, are pushing firms to continue increasing pay. This suggests that conditions for a near-term interest rate hike are falling into place. The BOJ has consistently stated that sustained, broad-based wage hikes are necessary before raising short-term interest rates from the current 0.25%, with some analysts speculating that a rate hike could come as soon as its policy meeting later this month. The dollar eased by 0.3% against the yen to 157.245 but remained near six-month highs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.59 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.17(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.05 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Monday amid a broader market selloff, as global equities were pressured by U.S. jobs data that strengthened expectations the Federal Reserve will take a cautious approach to rate cuts this year.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.55 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped on Monday as strong U.S. jobs data supported the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts and strengthened the dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.5% to $2,677.13 per ounce as of 1125 GMT, off almost one-month highs reached on Friday. U.S. gold futures were 0.4% lower at $2,704.50.
Oil prices rose for a third consecutive session on Monday, with Brent crude surpassing $80 a barrel, reaching its highest level in over four months.
Brent crude futures rose $1.48, or 1.9%, to $80.96 a barrel by 1236 GMT after hitting the highest level since Aug. 27 at $81.49.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.67, or 2.2%, at $78.24 a barrel after touching its highest since Aug. 15 at $78.58.