Posted at 13 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Dec) 0.6%, 0.2% previous
•Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%, -1.8% previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Dec) 10.7%, 7.3% forecast, 6.7% previous
•China Exports (Dec) 10.90M, 5.80M previous
•China Imports (Dec) 1.30M, -4.70M previous
•China Trade Balance (Dec) 752.91B, 730.00B forecast, 692.80B previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Dec) 1.0%, -1.5% forecast, -3.9% previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Dec) 104.84B, 100.00B forecast, 97.44B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:00 Swiss SECO Consumer Climate -38 forecast ,-37 previous
•10:00 Greek CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.4% previous
• 10:00 Greek HICP (YoY) (Dec) 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped lower against the dollar on Monday as last week’s upbeat payrolls data reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month. A Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, much higher than economists' forecasts for an increase of 160,000. Traders have now fully priced in that the Fed will hold rates at its meeting later this month and expect only one rate cut this year, which will be in June. Investors will closely watch the monthly U.S. consumer price index date due later in the week. Several Fed officials are also scheduled to speak this week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0274(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0326(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0217(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0197(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit fresh lows on Monday, weighed down by concerns over rising borrowing costs and increasing unease about Britain's financial outlook. British finance minister Rachel Reeves on Saturday vowed she would act to ensure the government's fiscal rules were met. The UK has been among the markets hardest hit by a surge in global borrowing costs, which most analysts say originated in the U.S. due to concerns about rising inflation, reduced chances of a drop in interest rates, and uncertainty over how U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will conduct foreign or economic policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2220(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2265(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2142(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2100(Psychological level)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar, driven by an unexpectedly robust U.S. jobs report, prompted markets to scale back expectations for U.S. rate cuts this year to just one. A robust U.S. jobs report prompted markets to sharply reduce expectations for Federal Reserve easing in 2025 to 27 basis points from around 45 basis points previously. Looking ahead, Australia's employment report due on Wednesday is expected to show a slight increase in the jobless rate for December. Forecasts predict a modest rise of 10,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.0% from 3.9%. At GMT13:02, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.04% to $0.6144. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6207(Jan 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6250(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6133(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6119(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday as yen strengthened ahead of Jan. 14 comments by BOJ Deputy Governor Himino Ryozo, a hawk who may back views expressed in Friday's article about upgrading price forecasts due to wage gains and yen weakness. Wage hikes are broadening in Japan as structural labour shortages have made firms more aware of the need to keep hiking pay, the central bank said, suggesting that conditions for a near-term interest rate hike were continuing to fall into place. The BOJ has repeatedly said sustained, broad-based wage hikes are a prerequisite to raise short-term interest rates from the current 0.25%, a move some analysts bet could come as early as its policy-setting meeting later this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.59 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.17(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.05 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asia shares dropped on Monday after a strong U.S. payrolls report drove bond yields higher and challenged elevated equity valuations, coinciding with the start of the earnings season.
Hang Seng was down 0.90% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 1.05%,China’s A50 fell by 0.29%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped on Monday as a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report supported the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts and strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the precious metal.
Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,684.39 per ounce as of 0530 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.1% to $2,712.
Oil prices extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent rising above $81 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, as wider U.S. sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.
Bent crude futures climbed $1.47, or 1.84%, to $81.23 a barrel by 0503 GMT after hitting an intraday high of $81.49, the highest since Aug. 27.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.55, or 2.02% to $78.12 a barrel after touching a high of $78.39, the most since Oct. 8.