Posted at 10 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, 0.1%forecast, -0.3% previous
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous
•Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -0.4%, 1.5% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.1%, 2.6% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.4%, 0.2% -0.5% previous
•Greek Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 4.9% ,-2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Dec) 0.3%forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Dec) 4.0% 4.0% previous
•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Dec) 34.3 34.3 previous
•13:30 US Government Payrolls (Dec) 33.0K previous
•13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec) 5K 22K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 164K 227K previous
•13:30 US Participation Rate (Dec) 62.5% previous
•13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec) 135K 194K previous
•13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Dec) 7.8% previous
•13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Dec) 4.2% 4.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Dec) 3.9% previous
•13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Nov) 1.3% forecast, -3.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Employment Change (Dec) 24.9K forecast 50.5K previous
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Dec) 54.2K previous
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Dec) -3.6K previous
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Dec) 65.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Dec) 6.9% forecast, 6.8% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 2.8% previous
•15:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jan) 3.0% previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jan) 73.3 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan) 74.0 forecast, 74.0 previous
•15:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Jan) 75.1 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 589 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, as the greenback firmed ahead of US paroles data. U.S. non-farm payrolls data is expected to show the economy added 160,000 jobs in December on top of the 227,000 in November, with unemployment holding at 4.2%.Anything stronger would add to the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and may set off another round of selling in jittery bond markets. Overnight, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he expected the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates, but added that an imminent cut wasn't needed. Markets have scaled back expectations for U.S. rates cuts in 2025 to around 40 basis points, while concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potentially inflationary agenda have helped drive up longer-term yields.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0318(Jan 9th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0364(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0273(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound remained under pressure on Friday due to elevated global borrowing costs, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline. Gilt yields also rose for the fifth straight day, although both the pound and yields were off their most extreme levels from the previous session. The UK has been among the markets most hit by a surge in global borrowing costs, which most analysts say originated in the U.S. due to concerns about rising inflation, reduced chances of a drop in interest rates. The pound was down 0.12% against the dollar at $1.2292 , having slid 0.3% earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2364(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2434(Jan 3rd high high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2265(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2236(23.6%fib))
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar drifted lower on Friday, as the U.S. dollar remained strong ahead of the crucial U.S. payrolls data. The report is pivotal, with the median forecast indicating a 160,000 job increase for December and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Predictions range from 120,000 to 200,000, allowing for potential surprises. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker suggested that the U.S. central bank may cut rates, but not immediately, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid expressed hesitation towards rate cuts. At GMT13:02, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.04% to $0.6196. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held steady against the yen on Friday as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report, which could either exacerbate or ease the global bond market sell-off. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for 0830 U.S. Eastern time (1330 GMT), is expected to show a 160,000 job increase in December, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. A stronger-than-expected report could push 10-year Treasury yields to 13-month highs, further strengthening the U.S. dollar. Markets have already reduced expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2025, with concerns over President-elect Trump's inflationary policies contributing to higher long-term yields. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Friday, pressured by high government bond yields, with investors now focusing on U.S. jobs data for guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.49percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached a four-week high on Friday, on track for their best week in seven, driven by safe-haven demand amid uncertainties surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's policies.
Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $2,680.59 per ounce, as of 1100 GMT after hitting its highest level since Dec. 13. Prices have risen by more than 1% this week.
Oil prices surged on Friday and were on track for a third straight week of gains as traders focused on potential supply disruptions from more sanctions on Russia and Iran.
Brent crude futures gained $2.66, or 3.5%, to $79.58 a barrel by 1154 GMT, reaching their highest in more than three months. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $2.64, or 3.6%, to $76.56.