Posted at 10 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Nov) -1.5%, 2.8% previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Nov) -2.1%, 0.2% previous
•Japan Leading Index 107.0, 107.2 forecast, 109.1 previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Dec) 2.8%, 2.6% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Dec) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, -0.4% previous
•07:45 French Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, -0.1% previous
•08:00 Swiss SECO Consumer Climate -37 previous
•:00 Spanish Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 1.9% previous
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 2.6% previous
•09:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, -0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell against the dollar on Friday, as the greenback was bolstered by rising bond yields and expectations for strong U.S. jobs data. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is expected to show an addition of 150,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Any stronger-than-expected results would strengthen the case for fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts and could trigger another round of selling in volatile bond markets. The dollar index is poised for its sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest streak since an 11-week run in 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0318(Jan 9th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0364(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0273(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Friday as the greenback strengthened ahead of the key U.S. jobs report, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is set for release at 1330 GMT, with payrolls expected to have risen by 160,000 in December, following a gain of 227,000 in November, according to a Reuters survey. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid signaled hesitation on rate cuts, citing a resilient economy and inflation still above the 2% target. Traders now anticipate the first rate cut in May or June, per the CME FedWatch Tool. Sterling fell 0.23% to $1.2278, after hitting a 14-month low of $1.2239 on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2364(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2434(Jan 3rd high high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2265(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2236(23.6%fib))
AUD/USD: The Australian drifted lower towards fresh 2-year low on Friday as dollar remained bid ahead of US payrolls data. The payrolls report is pivotal, with the median forecast showing a 160,000 rise in jobs for December and the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%. Predictions vary from 120,000 to 200,000, leaving room for surprises.Overnight, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he expects the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates, but added that an imminent move down isn't needed. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid signaled a reluctance to cut interest rates. At GMT 05:30, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.04% to $0.6196. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held steady against the yen on Friday as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report, which could either worsen or alleviate the global bond market sell-off. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due at 0830 U.S. Eastern time (1330 GMT), is expected to show a rise of 160,000 jobs in December, with unemployment holding at 4.2%. A stronger report could push 10-year Treasury yields to 13-month highs, boosting the U.S. dollar. Markets have already reduced expectations for U.S. rate cuts in 2025, with concerns over President-elect Trump's inflationary policies contributing to higher long-term yields. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Friday as investors awaited the crucial payrolls report, which could drive Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar higher.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.04% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.24%, Hang Seng was down by 1.03%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were on track for their best week since mid-November, with demand boosted by uncertainty surrounding U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies, as investors awaited a key jobs report to gauge the Federal Reserve's rate cut path.
Spot gold edged 0.2% higher to $2,674.36 per ounce as of 0551 GMT. Bullion has gained more than 1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,699.
Oil prices rose in Asian trading and were poised for a third consecutive week of gains, fueled by icy conditions in parts of the United States and Europe driving up heating fuel demand.
Brent crude futures climbed 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.32 a barrel at 0602 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 38 cents, also 0.5%, to $74.30.