Posted at 09 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Nov) 2.1%, 2.0% forecast, -2.9% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Nov) -3.3% ,0.7% forecast, -0.3% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) 1.5%, 0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
• German Trade Balance (Nov) 19.7B ,14.7B forecast, 13.4B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -2.85%, -4.22% previous
• Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Dec) 731.0B, 724.7B previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.6%, 2.2% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5% ,-0.3% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, -0.2% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Jan) 3.0%, 2.4% previous
• German CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.4%, 1.9% previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% ,0.3%forecast, -0.3% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.2% ,2.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•15:00 USD Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% previous
•15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -116B previous
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.265% previous
•16:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction 4.240% previous
•18:00 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:40 USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•18:30 Fed Schmid Speaks
•18:35 FOMC Member Bowmen Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Thursday as concerns grew that the single currency could fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties. Market focus in 2025 has shifted to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies as he returns to the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to boost growth while increasing price pressures. With U.S. markets closed on Thursday, attention now turns to Friday's payrolls report as investors assess when the Fed may next cut rates. The euro eased to $1.0306, hovering near the two-year low it hit last week .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0370(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0420(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened to hit fourteen month low against the dollar on Thursday as shifting tariff threats and a hawkish Fed statement boosted the greenback. The recent dollar and U.S. Treasury yield surge comes amid signs of U.S. economic and inflation resilience, leading markets to reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting, released on Wednesday, showed concerns that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies could prolong the battle against inflation. Focus is now shifting to UK bonds, which have been central to the selloff, amid growing worries about Britain's economic and fiscal health, despite no clear catalyst for this week's 20-basis point rise in 10-year gilt yields. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2333(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2368(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2261(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.229(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar traded near a two-year low on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar. The greenback remained firm after Fed minutes highlighted expectations of slowing inflation but noted risks of persistent price pressures. Policymakers also considered the potential impact of Trump's policies on the economy. On the data front, Australian retail sales rose 0.8% in November, boosted by Black Friday discounts, but fell short of the expected 1.0% increase.At GMT 13:16, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.26% to $0.6198. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Thursday as investors remained cautious amid concerns over potential intervention from Japanese officials. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a fresh warning against speculative yen selling on Tuesday, as the yen neared the key 160 per dollar level, which had prompted yen-buying interventions six months ago. Japan last intervened in July to support its currency when it fell to a 38-year low below 161 per dollar. On the data front, Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, impacted by higher prices, despite base pay rising at its fastest pace in over three decades, according to government data released on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks recovered from early losses to edge higher on Thursday, with gains in miners offsetting declines in retailers. However, uncertainty surrounding the monetary policy outlook and U.S. tariff plans kept bond markets under pressure.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.69 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.15 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a near four-week high on Thursday, driven by safe-haven demand, as investors assessed the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies on the economy and inflation.
Spot gold inched up 0.4% to $2,672.77 per ounce, as of 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,690.30.
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday as investors took into account strong winter fuel demand expectations, despite large U.S. fuel inventories and ongoing macroeconomic concerns.
Brent crude futures were up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $76.51 a barrel by 1246 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.62.