Posted at 09 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Nov) 4.8%, 3.5% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Nov) 1.7% ,-0.1% previous
• Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.8%, 1.0%forecast, 0.5% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Nov) 7.079B ,5.620B forecast, 5.670B previous
• China CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, -0.6% previous
• China CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• China PPI (YoY) (Dec) -2.3% -2.4% forecast, -2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.9% previous
•10:00 French 10-Year OAT Auction 3.24% previous
•10:00 French 30-Year OAT Auction 3.78% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% forecast,-0.5% previous
•10:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.9% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near 2-year low on Thursday as investors continued to worry that the single currency could fall to the key $1 mark this year due to tariff uncertainties. The focus for markets in 2025 has been on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies as he steps back into the White House on Jan. 20, with analysts expecting his policies to both bolster growth and add to price pressures. With U.S. markets closed on Thursday, the focus will shift to Friday's payrolls report as investors analyze the data to determine when the Fed might next cut rates. The euro eased to $1.030475, lurking close to the two-year low it hit last week .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0370(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0420(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped against the dollar on Thursday as shifting tariff threats and a hawkish statement from the Fed boosted the greenback. The latest surge in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields follows recent signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and inflation, prompting markets to lower expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. Minutes from the Fed's December policy meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed officials were concerned that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs and immigration policies could prolong the fight against inflation. Attention is now turning to UK bonds, which have been at the center of the selloff, amid growing concerns about Britain's economic and fiscal health, despite no clear trigger for this week's 20-basis point surge in 10-year gilt yields. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2333(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2368(Daily high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2261(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.229(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar traded near two year low on Thursday as the Australian dollar was pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback held firm after Fed minutes highlighted expectations of slowing inflation but noted risks of persistent price pressures. Policymakers also weighed the potential impact of Trump’s policies on the economy. On the data front, Australian retail sales climbed 0.8% in November, driven by Black Friday discounts, but fell short of the expected 1.0% rise.At GMT 07:45, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.20% to $0.6183. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered around six high month against the yen on Thursday as investors were cautions on intervention fears from Japanese officials. Japan's finance minister, Katsunobu Kato issued a fresh warning against speculative yen selling on Tuesday, as the Japanese currency neared the key 160 per dollar level, which had triggered yen-buying interventions six months ago. Japan last intervened in July to support its currency when it fell to a 38-year low below 161 per dollar. On The data front, Japan’s inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, weighed down by higher prices, despite base pay rising at the fastest pace in over three decades, according to government data released on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.87% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.03%, Hang Seng was down by 0.10%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined for a second day on Thursday following large builds in fuel inventories in the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer. However, expectations of rising winter fuel demand and concerns over tighter supply helped limit the drop.
Brent crude futures fell 8 cents to $76.08 a barrel by 0409 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 11 cents to $73.21. Both prices were down around 0.1% from the previous session.
Gold prices hovered near a four-week peak on Thursday, while focus shifted to jobs report due on Friday for clarity on the Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate path.
Spot gold edged 0.1% higher to $2,664.30 per ounce, as of 0732 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $2,681.80