Posted at 08 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,867K, 1,870K forecast, 1,834K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 201K ,214K forecast, 211K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 213.00K, 223.25K previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov) -0.2%, -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.6% ,-0.3% previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories -0.959M -1.800M ,-1.178M previous
•US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.045M, 0.041M previous
•US Crude Oil Imports 0.278M, 0.323M previous
•US Consumer Credit (Nov) -7.49B 10.30B, 17.32B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (Nov) 3.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 1.0% forecast,0.6% previous
•00:30 Australia Trade Balance (Nov) 5.620B forecast,5.953B previous
•01:30 China CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.6% previous
•01:30 China CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•01:30 China PPI (YoY) (Dec) -2.4% forecast,, -2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Wednesday as investors assessed reports on Trump's potential tariff plans. CNN, citing sources, reported that Trump was considering declaring a national economic emergency to justify imposing universal tariffs on both allies and adversaries. Euro zone inflation accelerated in December, prompting traders to scale back expectations of ECB rate cuts later in the year, though they still anticipate a 25 bps cut in January and March. Data on Wednesday revealed that German industrial orders and retail sales unexpectedly declined in November, while euro zone economic sentiment also dropped in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0370(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0420(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0272(23.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0224(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as greenback held on to gains after minutes from the Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, showed policymakers agreed inflation was likely to continue slowing this year but also saw a rising risk that price pressures could remains sticky as they grappled with the potential effect of Trump's policies.The market now awaits U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more clues on the Fed's policy path. Markets are now pricing in just 39 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve this year, with a first interest rate cut likely to happen in June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2447(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2556(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2328(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2261(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slipped against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields rose and concerns over potential American trade tariffs grew. The loonie was down 0.2% at 1.4390 to the U.S. dollar, after fluctuating between 1.4340 and 1.4409. It had hit a near 5-year low of 1.4467 in December, pressured by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threat of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Investors were awaiting U.S. and Canadian employment data on Friday for clues on prospects of additional interest rate cuts by the Fed and the Bank of Canada.Economists forecast that Canada's economy added 25,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate edged up to 6.9% from 6.8% in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4448(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4546(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4194 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Wednesday as investors assessed US economic data and report of Trump's tariff plans. Investors assessed an ADP report showing sharply slower private payroll growth in December, while separate Labor Department report showed jobless claims for the previous week fell. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders see easing at the next meeting as possibility, but they also place 23% odds on another one coming in January. Investors will be eyeing Friday's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls data. Non-farm payrolls data will give the most definitive picture of labour market. The dollar strengthened 0.25% to 158.41 and moved closer to the 160 level that has sparked Japanese authorities to intervene to support the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as bond yields surged with investors adjusting expectations for fewer interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S. this year while concerns over potential new tariffs under Donald Trump's presidency also contributed to the negative sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.07 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.49 percent.
U.S. stocks closed mostly flat on Wednesday as investors struggled to find direction, absorbing the impact of two conflicting jobs reports and a report suggesting President-elect Donald Trump was considering a national economic emergency declaration to address inflation.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.25 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.14 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached a near four-week high on Wednesday after a weaker-than-expected private employment report for December reassured some market participants that the U.S. Federal Reserve may ease off on rate hikes this year.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,657.38 per ounce, as of 02:15 p.m. ET (1915 GMT) and hit its highest since Dec. 13. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% higher at $2,672.40.
Oil prices dropped over 1% on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and significant increases in U.S. fuel inventories weighed on prices, reversing earlier gains driven by tightening supplies from Russia and other OPEC members.
Brent crude settled down 89 cents, or 1.16%, to $76.23 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 93 cents, or 1.25%, to $73.32.