Posted at 08 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov) -5.4%, -0.3% forecast, -1.5% previous
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•German Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 2.5%, 1.9% forecast, 5.1% previous
•French Current Account (Nov) -1.70B, -1.90B previous
•French Exports (Nov) 50.1B, 48.7B previous
•French Imports (Nov) 57.2B, 56.2B previous
•French Trade Balance (Nov) -7.1B, -7.0B forecast, -7.5B previous
•UK Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Dec) 7.50%, 7.59% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Dec) 93.7, 95.6 forecast, 95.6 previous
•EU Business Climate (Dec) -0.91, -0.78 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Dec) -14.5, -14.5 forecast, -13.7 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec) 21.0, 17.8 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Dec) 7.6, 7.1 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Dec) 5.9, 5.8 forecast, 5.3 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Dec) -14.1, -11.7 forecast, -11.4 previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Nov) 1.6%, 1.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Nov) -1.2%, -1.3% forecast, -3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K forecast, 1,844K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 214K forecast, 211K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 223.25K previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov) -0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.800M forecast, -1.178M previous
•15:00 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.041M previous
•15:00 US Crude Oil Imports 0.323M previous
•15:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.142M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:30 Fed Waller Speaks
•19:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. economic data lifted U.S. bond yields, prompting the dollar to resume its uptrend. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. job openings grew to 8.098 million, surpassing the forecasted 7.7 million increase, while activity in the services sector also accelerated The greenback had dipped to is lowest level in a week on Monday as traders assessed whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies would match his aggressive rhetoric. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0370(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0420(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as the greenback strengthened across the board following solid U.S. data on Tuesday.ISM’s December survey showed U.S. services sector activity accelerated, with input prices surging to nearly a two-year high.US Job openings in November rose to 8.098 million, beating the 7.7 million forecast and October's 7.839 million.ADP’s private-sector jobs report and weekly jobless claims are due later Wednesday, ahead of Friday's national employment report. The pound was last down 1.17% at $1.2328. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2446(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2556(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2317(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2277(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Wednesday after data showed slowdown in Australian core inflation reinforced expectations of a potential interest rate cut as early as February. Underlying inflation dropped to 3.2% in November, down from 3.5% in October, edging closer to the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. The central bank unexpectedly adopted a dovish stance last month as economic growth remained sluggish. A rate cut in February would make it easier for the center-left Labor government to call an early election, which must be held by May at the latest. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6187(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday but gains were limited as traders remained cautious of potential intervention Japan . The yen sagged close the 160 per dollar level that drew intervention last year and touched 158.42 overnight, its weakest on the dollar for nearly six months. It last sat at 158.130.Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato had warned against speculative yen selling a day earlier as the exchange rate nears the 160 level that drew dollar selling half a year ago.On the data front, Japan's consumer sentiment weakened in December, challenging the central bank's assumption that robust household spending will support the economy and warrant higher interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday after strong U.S. data drove a spike in bond yields and pared some bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.60 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.36 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Wednesday as concerns over President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariffs balanced the pressure from a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields, with investors awaiting U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate outlook.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,646.88 per ounce, as of 1220 GMT. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% to $2,660.00.
Oil prices pared earlier gains on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, but still found support from tightening supplies from Russia and OPEC members, along with a drop in U.S. crude stocks.
Brent crude was up 32 cents, or 0.42%, at $77.37 a barrel at 1217 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 47 cents, or 0.63%, to $74.72.