Posted at 08 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Weighted mean CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.30%, 2.20% forecast, 2.10% previous
• Japan Household Confidence (Dec) 36.2, 36.6 forecast, 36.4 previous
•German Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov) -5.4%, -0.3% forecast, -1.5% previous
•German Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) -0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•German Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 2.5%, 1.9% forecast, 5.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•10:00 EU Business and Consumer Survey (Dec) 95.6 forecast, 95.8 previous
•10:00 EU Business Climate (Dec) -0.77 previous
•10:00 EU Consumer Confidence (Dec) -14.5, -13.7 forecast
•10:00 EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Dec) 17.7 previous
•10:00 EU Selling Price Expectations (Dec) 7.1 previous
•10:00 EU Services Sentiment (Dec) 5.8 forecast, 5.3 previous
•10:00 EU Industrial Sentiment (Dec) -11.7 forecast, -11.1 previous
•10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Nov) 1.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Nov) -1.3% forecast, -3.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Wednesday as upbeat U.S. economic data lifted U.S. bond yields, prompting the dollar to resume its uptrend. On Tuesday, data showed U.S. job openings grew to 8.098 million, surpassing the forecasted 7.7 million increase, while activity in the services sector also accelerated The greenback had dipped to is lowest level in a week on Monday as traders assessed whether U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies would match his aggressive rhetoric. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0370(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0420(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0249(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound slipped lower on Wednesday as the dollar gained upward traction after data showed the U.S. economy remained stable.U.S. job openings rose to 8.098 million in November, surpassing forecasts and up from 7.839 million recorded in October.Markets are currently pricing in the probability of just one Fed cut in 2025, down from two in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.The market now awaits U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for more clues on the Fed's policy path. ADP employment numbers and the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, due later in the day, are also on investors' radar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2555(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2668(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2454(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2356(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Wednesday after data showed slowdown in Australian core inflation reinforced expectations of a potential interest rate cut as early as February. Underlying inflation dropped to 3.2% in November, down from 3.5% in October, edging closer to the RBA's target range of 2% to 3%. The central bank unexpectedly adopted a dovish stance last month as economic growth remained sluggish. A rate cut in February would make it easier for the center-left Labor government to call an early election, which must be held by May at the latest. The dovish outlook kept the Aussie steady at $0.6230, down from an overnight high of $0.6288. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.62627(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6336(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6197(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6135(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, but gains were limited as traders remained cautious of potential intervention by Japan .Japan Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato had warned against speculative yen selling a day earlier as the exchange rate nears the 160 level that drew dollar selling half a year ago. The yen was last at 158.12 per dollar after touching 158.425 on Tuesday, a level last seen in July when Tokyo intervened to support the yen. It slid more than 10% last year against the dollar and has had a rough start to 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks declined on Wednesday, as traders speculated that the Fed would likely be slow to cut rates after data showed the U.S. economy remained stable..
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.27% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.16%, Hang Seng was down by 0.99%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday, pressured by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar after data suggested the Federal Reserve might slow the pace of rate cuts this year.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,645.64 per ounce, as of 0454 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,658.60.
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as supplies from Russia and OPEC members tightened, while data showing an unexpected increase in U.S. job openings indicated expanding economic activity and a potential rise in oil demand.
Brent crude was up 37 cents, or 0.5%, at $77.42 a barrel at 0730 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 44 cents, or 0.6%, to $74.69.