Posted at 07 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss CPI (YoY) (Dec) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Swiss CPI (MoM) (Dec) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%, 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Dec) 1.8%, 1.9% forecast, 1.7% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.2%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec) 51.2, 48.5 forecast
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Dec) 37.8, 38.0 forecast
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec) 42.6, 43.7 forecast
•HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Dec) 42.9, 42.7 forecast
•Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Nov) 5.7%, 5.8% forecast, 5.8% previous
•Italian CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•Italian CPI (YoY) (Dec) 1.3%, 1.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Dec) 1.4%, 1.6% forecast, 1.5% previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.5%, -0.6% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.4%, -0.3% forecast
•EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.2% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Dec) 127.08, 126.62 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Exports (Nov) 265.70B previous
•13:30 US Imports (Nov) 339.60B previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Nov) -78.30B forecast, -73.80B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Nov) 64.22B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Nov) 65.14B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Nov) -0.80B forecast, -0.92B previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Dec) 53.7 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 51.4 forecast, 51.5 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Dec) 54.2 forecast, 53.7 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 53.5 forecast, 52.1 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 57.5 forecast, 58.2 previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Dec) 16.50M forecast, 16.50M previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Dec) 49.7 previous
•15:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Dec) 55.4, 52.3 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, with investors speculating that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may adopt less aggressive tariffs than initially expected. The euro zone has been a particular target of Trump's tariff threats, and the euro added 0.18% to $1.0409, after jumping to a one-week high of $1.0437 on Monday. On the data front,inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro picked up to 2.4% last month from 2.2% in November, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The week is filled with key data releases, especially from the U.S., culminating in the December nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0468(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0551(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0352(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0252(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained on Tuesday as dollar eases amid uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans.This week, attention turns to December's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, a key indicator for assessing the Federal Reserve's 2025 rate trajectory. On the data front, activity in Britain's construction industry grew at the slowest pace in six months in December, while British house prices dropped unexpectedly last month for the first time since March. The pair hit daily high at 1.2574 and was last trading at 1.2533 at (GMT 12:39). Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2562(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2610(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2515(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2378(23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained upward traction against greenback on Tuesday as traders assessed whether President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs would be less aggressive than promised. The greenback weakened after a Washington Post report suggested Trump's aides were considering tariffs limited to sectors deemed critical to U.S. national or economic security. Looking ahead, markets will focus on Australian consumer price data on Wednesday will shape Q4 forecasts, potentially influencing the RBA's February rate decision.At (GMT 13:18)The pair was last trading up 0.6 percent at 0.6281, having rallied 0.5% overnight to as high as $0.6302. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6282(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6357(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6237(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6195(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially gained on Tuesday but gave up ground as investors assessed Japan's finance minister warning against speculative yen selling. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned against speculative yen selling on Tuesday as the currency neared the 160-per-dollar level, which had triggered interventions six months ago.Japan last intervened in July to support its currency when it tumbled to a 38-year low below 161 per dollar. The dollar gained 0.04% to reach 157.69 yen, and earlier rose as high as 158.42 yen for the first time since July 17. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.66 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.01(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.80 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 struggled for direction on Tuesday, as gains in industrials and financial services shares offset losses in healthcare stocks.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.61 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.71 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened amid uncertainty over President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, with additional support from China's central bank increasing its gold reserves for the second consecutive month.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,648.75 per ounce, as of 1218 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.5% to $2,660.20.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, recovering from earlier losses, as concerns over tighter Russian and Iranian supply due to escalating Western sanctions provided support.
Brent futures were up 59 cents, or 0.77%, to $76.89 a barrel at 1313 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 42 cents, or 0.57%, to $73.98.