Posted at 06 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Dec) 57.3, 54.1 forecast, 53.1previous
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Dec) 49.7, 47.7 previous
• Italy HCOB Italy Services PMI (Dec) 50.7, 50.0 forecast, 49.2 previous
•France HCOB France Composite PMI (Dec) 47.5, 46.7 forecast,45.9 previous
•France HCOB France Services PMI (Dec) 49.3, 48.2 forecast, 46.9 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Dec) 48.0, 47.8 forecast, 47.2 previous
•Germany HCOB Germany Services PMI (Dec) 51.2, forecast, 51.0 49.3 previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Dec) 1.8% ,-0.3% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.7% ,2.0% previous
•Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec) 49.6 ,49.5 forecast,48.3 previous
•Eurozone HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec) 51.6, 51.4 forecast,49.5 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) -0.2%, -1.9% previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 50.4 ,50.5 forecast, 50.5 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) 51.1 ,51.4 forecast, 50.8 previous
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan) -17.7 ,-17.7 forecast, -17.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.372% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.770% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.575% previous
•14:00 French Car Registration (YoY) (Dec) -12.7% previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 56.6 forecast, 54.9 previous
•14:45 USD S&P Global Services PMI (Dec) 58.5 forecast, 56.1 previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•15:00 USD Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Nov) 0.2% previous
•15:00 USD Factory Orders (MoM) (Nov) -0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•15:00 USD Factory orders ex transportation (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% previous
•15:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (Dec) 16.50M 16.50M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
14:30 USD Fed Governor Cook Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro rose on Monday as the U.S. dollar slumped following a report indicating that U.S. tariffs could be less severe than previously anticipated under President-elect Donald Trump. According to the Washington Post, Trump’s aides were considering tariffs targeting only sectors deemed critical to national or economic security. Inflation figures from the EU and Germany later this week are expected to provide further clarity on potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. The U.S. dollar index, which had already been trading lower, fell more than 1% to 107.86 after the news, down from a two-year high of 109.54 on Thursday. The euro rallied 1.13% to $1.0433, its highest level in a week, after hitting a 25-month low of $1.0225 on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0438(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0515(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0359(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0252(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose sharply on Monday as dollar slumped after a report said President-elect Donald Trump was mulling tariffs that would only be applied to critical imports, potentially a relief for countries that were expecting broader levies. The U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, is expected to provide more clues to the Fed's rate outlook after the U.S. central bank rattled markets last month by reducing its projected cuts for 2025.Investors are also awaiting ADP hiring and job openings data, as well as minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting for further direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2490(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2537 (Jan 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2493(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2349 (23.6%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained on Monday as the U.S. dollar dipped, following a report from the Washington Post suggesting that Trump's tariffs may be more targeted. Trump's aides are considering tariff plans that would apply to all countries but focus only on critical imports, according to a report from the Washington Post on Monday. Australia is set to release its monthly inflation report on Wednesday, with economists predicting headline inflation will rise to 2.3% annually in November, up from 2.1% in October. Australia Retail sales data is set for release on Thursday, with economists expecting a strong 0.9% increase in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6302(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6357(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6202(Daily low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Monday as uncertainty over the timing of Bank of Japan interest rate hike kept bearish pressure on pair. At an event hosted by the Japanese Bankers Association today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed the cautious approach to monetary policy changes. He underlined that any increases in interest rates would be contingent upon long-term improvements in the state of the economy and prices. On the data front, Japan’s service activity expanded for a second straight month in December, buoyed by solid demand and business expansion, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.87 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.13 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.38(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.17(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks and currencies surged on Monday following a Washington Post report suggesting that U.S. tariffs could be less severe than previously threatened by President-elect Donald Trump, boosting optimism in regional markets.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.18 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.05 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 1.66 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices held steady at their highest levels since mid-October, driven by colder weather boosting demand, along with expectations of tighter sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil exports providing additional support.
Brent crude futures gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.73 a barrel by 1133 GMT, their highest since Oct. 14.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.19 for its highest since Oct. 11.
Gold prices held steady on Monday as investors remained cautious, awaiting upcoming economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate path
Spot gold was little changed at $2,641.19 per ounce by 1120 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,655.00.