Posted at 04 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 45.3, 48.0 forecast, 48.1 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec) 52.5, 50.4 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 49.3, 48.2 forecast, 48.4 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 52.5, 51.5 forecast, 50.3 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage -116B, -127B, -93B previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 2.4%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482,483 previous
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 589,589 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
•22:30 FOMC Member Daly Speaks
•22:30 FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday as euro gained some traction amid short covering after it fell to a 26-month low on Thursday. he euro faces a weaker growth outlook and may be hurt by U.S. tariffs, with the European Central Bank expected to cut rates further than the Federal Reserve this year. Traders are pricing in 100 basis points rate cuts by the ECB by year-end, and only a less than certain chance of 50 basis points of cuts by the Fed. Uncertainties including the French budget battle and German elections are also weighing on the single currency. The euro was last up 0.39% at $1.0305. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0347(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0415(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0250(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0215(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound recovered some ground against the dollar on Friday, but gains were limited as investors assessed the outlook for the UK economy after latest UK economic data. A survey released on Thursday showed that UK factory activity shrank in December, with manufacturers reducing their workforce due to higher taxes and sluggish foreign demand. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index dropped to 47.0 in December from 48.0 in November, falling short of the preliminary reading of 47.3. This represents the latest in a string of disappointing economic reports for the UK.. Sterling gained 0.41% to $1.2431. It was on track to lose roughly 1.15% for the week, the most since early November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2490(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2532 (Jan 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2356(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2314(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as investors assessed several risks to the commodity-linked currency, with the Chinese economy showing signs of weakness. As a major commodities producer, Canada’s loonie is highly sensitive to global growth prospects. Analysts also point to additional challenges for the currency, including the potential for US. tariffs on Canadian imports and rising political uncertainty. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has faced mounting pressure to resign since his finance minister's departure on December 16. The currency traded in a range of 1.4384 to 1.4463, while it posted a weekly decline of 0.2%. That was its sixth straight weekly decline, the longest such stretch since August 2023.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4477 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4535(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4364(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4273 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Friday as dollar stalled despite stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing survey. The US dollar surged late last year as investors anticipated that president-elect Trump's policies would boost growth and inflation, reducing the likelihood of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.29% to 108.90 after briefly paring losses as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said a key manufacturing index increased more than expected to 49.3 last month, the highest reading since March, from 48.4 in November. The dollar weakened 0.15% to 157.29 against the Japanese yen Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.30 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.71(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower on Friday, wrapping up a holiday-shortened week, with significant losses in major luxury and spirits companies.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.59 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.51 percent.
U.S. stocks bounced back on Friday as the holiday-shortened week ended, with investors anticipating more Federal Reserve rate cuts and looser regulations under the new administration.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.80 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 01.26 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.75 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell from a three-week high on Friday, weighed down by a strong dollar, as markets prepared for possible economic and trade changes under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
Spot gold eased 0.6% to $2,641.52 an ounce at 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT), after hitting its highest level since Dec. 13 earlier in the session. Bullion is up about 0.8% for the week so far.U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2,654.70.
Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for weekly gains, as cold weather in Europe and the U.S, along with China's additional economic stimulus, pushed prices to their highest levels in over two months.
Brent crude futures were up 69 cents, or 0.9%, at $76.62 a barrel by 12:49 p.m. ET (1749 GMT) after settling on Thursday at the highest level since Oct. 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.11, or 1.5%, to $74.24.