Posted at 03 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Unemployment Change (Dec) 10K, 15K forecast,7K previous
•German Unemployment Rate (Dec) 6.1%, 6.2% forecast,6.1% previous
•German Unemployment (Dec) 2.869M ,2.860M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Dec) 2.807M 2.774M previous
•Italian Public Deficit (Q3) 2.3%, 3.2% previous
•UK BoE Consumer Credit (Nov) 0.878B, 1.200B forecast, 0.995B previous
•UK M3 Money Supply (Nov) 3,077.1B, 3,078.0B previous
•UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•UK Mortgage Approvals (Nov) 65.72K, 69.00K forecast, 68.13K previous
•UK Mortgage Lending (Nov) 2.47B, 3.20B forecast, 3.47B previous
•UK Net Lending to Individuals (Nov) 3.400B, 4.400B forecast, 4.500B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 USISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec) 48.0 forecast, 48.1 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec) 50.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 48.2 forecast, 48.4 previous
•15:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec) 51.5 forecast, 50.3 previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Dec) 16.50M 16.50M previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -127B -93B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Friday, but gains were limited as a dour euro zone outlook kept gains in check. The euro was last up 0.28% at $1.02950 but was headed for a 1.3% weekly decline, its worst since November. The common currency was among the biggest losers against a towering dollar, having tumbled 0.86% in the previous session to a more than two-year low of $1.02247.Traders are pricing in more than 100 basis points worth of rate cuts from the European Central Bank next year, while they expect just about 45 bps of easing from the Fed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0347(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0415(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0250(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0215(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling struggled to rebound against the dollar on Friday as latest data pointed to a slowing British economy. British factory activity contracted in December, with manufacturers cutting staffing levels due to higher taxes and weak foreign demand, according to a survey released Thursday. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.0 in December from 48.0 in November, below the preliminary reading of 47.3. This marks the latest in a series of weak economic readings for the UK. The pound edged up 0.1% to $1.2395, having slid 1.16% on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2490(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2532 (Jan 2nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2347(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2314(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar pair recovered some ground on Friday as higher commodities prices and an improving economic outlook in China provided some support to Australian dollar. President Xi Jinping New Year's address on Tuesday that China would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.China's December survey showed weak manufacturing growth, but services and construction fared better, indicating that policy stimulus is supporting these sectors . Oil prices extended gains as expectations grew that governments around the world might step up policy support to boost economic growth, which could, in turn, drive higher fuel demand .As of GMT 13:18, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.26% at $0.6219. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6220(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6279(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Friday as growing concerns that Japanese authorities may intervene to stabilize the currency provided some support to yen. Leading Japanese financial officials recently expressed concerns about the yen's fluctuations, signaling that the government is ready to intervene if speculative trading becomes excessive. Japan last intervened in the currency markets in July, conducting a yen-buying operation to support the currency after it dropped to a 38-year low below 161 yen per dollar. At GMT 13.17,the dollar was down 0.22% at 157.17 against Japanese yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.71(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped on Friday at the end of a holiday-shortened week, as traders focused on economic data for clues on interest rate paths and potential policy changes under a donald trump presidency.
At (GMT 13:30 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.60 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.05 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices hit a three-week high on Friday, supported by a softer dollar and safe-haven buying, as markets braced for potential economic and interest rate changes from president-elect Donald trump's proposed policies.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,657.18 an ounce at 1250 GMT, having earlier hit its highest since Dec. 13 at $2,665.10. U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,671.20.
Oil prices held steady on Friday, poised for weekly gains after closing the previous session at their highest in over two months, supported by colder weather in Europe and the US. and additional economic stimulus signaled by China.
Brent crude futures were down 9 cents at $75.84 a barrel by 1212 GMT after settling on Thursday at the highest level since Oct. 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped by 6 cents to $73.07, with Thursday's close its highest since Oct. 14.