Posted at 02 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Dec): 4.7%, 3.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
• UK Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.7%, 0.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
• Sweden Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 52.4, 53.8 previous
•Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 53.3, 53.6 forecast, 53.1 previous
•Italian Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 46.2, 44.9 forecast, 44.5 previous
•French Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 41.9, 41.9 forecast, 43.1 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 42.5, 42.5 forecast, 43.0 previous
•Greek Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 53.2, 50.9 previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (Nov): 16,681.9B, 16,577.4B previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Nov): 3.8%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 45.1, 45.2 previous
•EU Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Nov): 1.0%, 1.2% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Nov): 0.9%, 0.9% previous, 0.8% previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.0, 47.3 forecast, 48.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,890K forecast, 1,910K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 222K forecast, 219K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 226.50K previous
•:30 Canada Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 51.9 forecast, 52.0 previous
•14:45 US Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 48.3 forecast, 49.7 previous
•15:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov): 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories: -2.400M forecast, -4.237M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Thursday as the greenback remained supported by expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay higher than those of other economies. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies are anticipated to not only stimulate growth but also increase inflationary pressures. This could make the Fed cautious about cutting rates too much further, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and driving demand for the dollar. The euro fell to as low as $1.0314, its lowest since November 2022, down around 0.3% on the day. It is now down nearly 8% since its late September highs above $1.12, one major victim of the dollar's recent surge.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0376(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0400(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0344(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0311(LowerBB)
GBP/USD: The pound dropped sharply against the dollar on Thursday, weighed down by worse-than-expected U.K. PMI data. British factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 11 months in December, with manufacturers reducing staff due to higher taxes and weak foreign demand. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.0 from 48.0 in November, below the preliminary December reading of 47.3, marking another sign of economic weakness. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2500(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2546 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2418(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2365(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday, but gains were limited as the greenback remained firm, supported by expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay high relative to other currencies. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, combined with concerns about the Australian economy, is likely to cap any sustained gains. The Aussie’s direction will largely depend on global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and potential shifts in monetary policy from both the RBA and the Federal Reserve in 2025. As of GMT 07:42, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.33% at $0.6208. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6220(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6279(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar initially dipped but recovered ground against the yen on Thursday as investors brace for U.S. rates staying higher for longer. A wide interest rate difference between the U.S. and other economies has cast a shadow over the foreign exchange market over the past year, resulting in most currencies declining sharply against the dollar in 2024.None more so than the yen , which slid more than 10% in 2024 for its fourth year of decline. Markets are currently pricing in about 42 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed this year, compared to over 100 bps from the European Central Bank and 60 bps from the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.39 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.79 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.38(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.14(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fluctuated in the first trading session of 2025, following a late-year selloff driven by concerns over high valuations and policies under incoming U.S. President Donald Trump.
At GMT 13:19 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.50 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, supported by volatility in equities and fresh positioning, while the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook remained in focus ahead of trade tariffs proposed by President-elect Donald Trump.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,641.64 an ounce by 1140 GMT, having gained 0.7% on the last trading day of 2024. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $2,654.30.
Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors returned for the first trading day of the new year, hopeful about China's economic recovery and fuel demand following President Xi Jinping's pledge to promote growth.
Brent crude futures rose $1.04, or 1.39%, to $75.68 a barrel by 1205 GMT after gaining 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day of 2024. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.02, or 1.42%, at $72.74.