Posted at 02 January 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.8, 48.2 forecast, 49.4 previous
•China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.5, 51.6 forecast, 51.5 previous
•India Nikkei S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 56.4, 57.4 forecast, 56.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•08:00 Italian Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 44.9 forecast, 44.5 previous
•08:50 French Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 41.9 forecast, 43.1 previous
•08:55 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 42.5 forecast, 43.0 previous
•09:00 EU Greek Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 50.9 previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (Nov): 16,577.4B previous
•09:00 EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Nov): 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•09:00 EU Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 45.2 forecast, 45.2 previous
•09:00 EULoans to Non-Financial Corporations (Nov): 1.2% previous
•09:00 EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Nov): 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House, with his inauguration scheduled for January 20. The market is also awaiting a range of U.S. economic data next week, which could influence the interest rate outlook for 2025. The euro is set to end the year with a 5.7% decline against the dollar, as traders expect the European Central Bank to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in 113 basis points of easing from the ECB in 2025, compared to 42 bps from the Fed. The euro was 0.11% higher at $1.0366 on Thursday after dropping more than 6% in 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0376(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0400(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0344(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0311(LowerBB)
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Thursday as traders braced for U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's expected policy shifts. Market focus early in the year will be on the incoming Trump administration and its policies that are widely expected to not only boost growth but also add to price pressure. That will underpin U.S. Treasury yields and boost dollar demand.A wide interest rate difference between the U.S. and other economies has cast a shadow over the foreign exchange market over the past year, resulting in most currencies declining sharply against the dollar in 2024. Sterling last fetched $1.2519. It fell 1.7% last year but was nevertheless the best-performing G10 currency versus the dollar, mainly as the British economy held up better than was widely expected. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2618(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2666 (Dec 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2487(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2450(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar pair recovered some ground on Thursday, as bargain hunting provided some support for the Australian dollar. However, despite this short-term rebound, the outlook remains bearish. The continued strength of the U.S. dollar, along with concerns about the Australian economy, is likely to limit any sustained gains. The Australian dollar's direction will largely depend on global risk sentiment, commodity prices, and any shifts in monetary policy from both the RBA and the Federal Reserve in 2025. As of GMT 07:42, the Australian dollar was trading up 0.45% at $0.6212. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6220(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6279(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6180(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as investors remained cautious ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House. Amid global uncertainty and expectations of fewer Fed interest rate cuts this year, the safe-haven dollar stayed near a two-year peak. A significant interest rate gap between the U.S. and other economies has overshadowed the foreign exchange market, driving most currencies lower against the dollar in 2024. Markets are currently pricing in about 42 basis points of rate cuts from the Fed this year, compared to over 100 bps from the European Central Bank and 60 bps from the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.39 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.79 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.38(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.14(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks started the year on a weak note on Thursday, struggling for momentum after a volatile close to 2024.
Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei N225 was down 0.96% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.02%, Hang Seng was down by 2.31%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday, extending the momentum from a strong finish to record-breaking 2024. Traders were preparing for the expected policy shifts from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, which are likely to influence the economic and interest rate outlook for the New Year.
On the first trading session of the year, spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,634.88 per ounce, as of 0553 GMT. U.S. gold futures edged up 0.2% to $2,646.70.
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, the first trading day of 2025, as investors, returning from the holidays, cautiously watched for a recovery in China's economy and fuel demand after President Xi Jinping's pledge to promote growth
Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.06%, to $74.82 a barrel by 0547 GMT after settling up 65 cents on Tuesday, the last trading day for 2024. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 19 cents, or 0.26%, to $71.91 a barrel after closing 73 cents higher in the previous session.