Posted at 31 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Nov) 815.5B, 810.3B previous
•Greek Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) -1.5%, -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.9% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 4.4% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•14:00 US House Price Index (Oct) 430.3 previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Oct) 0.2% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Oct) -0.4% previous
•14:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Oct) 4.1%, 4.6% previous
•15:30 US Dallas Fed Services Revenues (Dec) 10.9 previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited more clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies. The market awaits a fresh set of U.S. economic data due next week that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for 2025, and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies.The euro is set for a 5.7% decline against the dollar this year, with traders expecting the European Central Bank to be sharper with its cuts than the Fed. On Tuesday, the single currency was steady at $1.0387, but staying close to the two-year low of $1.0331 it touched in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against dollar on the final trading day of the year on Tuesday, keeping it on track to be the best-performing major currency against the dollar this year, as the UK economy has fared better than expected. Sterling has dropped 1.4% over the year, with expectations for British and U.S. interest rates moving largely in sync. This has minimized the divergence between the two countries' bond yields, which influence currencies by affecting the attractiveness of fixed-income investments Investors broadly expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates two times next year after two cuts in 2024. BoE officials remain concerned that inflation in services and wages remains too high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2618(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2666 (Dec 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2487(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2450(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar stayed near a two-year low on Tuesday as trading volume remained thin as markets headed into the New Year’s holiday on Wednesday. The Australian dollar has dropped 8.8% this year. It had reached a high of $0.6943 in September, but a wide surge in the US dollar brought it down to a two-year low of $0.6199At the same time, poor data in Australia has prompted investors to anticipate further domestic policy easing. Markets imply around a 45% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its 4.35% cash rate in February. At GMT 13:13, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.44% to $0.6192. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Tuesday as investors continued to evaluate the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. The BOJ kept rates steady at 0.25% during this month's meeting, with Governor Kazuo Ueda stating that the decision was aimed at gathering more data on next year's wage trends and gaining clarity on the incoming U.S. administration's economic policies. On Tuesday, the yen stood at 156.66 per dollar, on track for a 10% decline in 2024, marking its fourth consecutive year of losses against the dollar. With Japanese markets closed for the rest of the week and most markets closed on Wednesday for the New Year's Day holiday, trading volumes are expected to be exceptionally low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.25(Dec 27 thlow) a break below could take the pair towards 156.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks were on track for their worst quarterly performance in over two years on Tuesday, as uncertainty surrounding interest rates and the Trump administration's policies halted a rally that had driven several markets to record highs this year.
At GMT 13:04 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.38 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.92 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were poised to close a record-breaking year on a high note on Tuesday, with strong central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainties, and monetary policy easing driving the safe-haven metal's best annual performance since 2010.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,610.63 per ounce by 1148 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,623.00.
Oil prices were set to finish 2024 with a second consecutive year of losses, though they rose on Tuesday after data revealed an expansion in China's manufacturing activity in December.
Brent crude futures climbed by 54 cents, or 0.73%, to $74.53 a barrel as of 1107 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 57 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.56 a barrel.