Posted at 31 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 50.1, 50.3 forecast, 50.3 previous
•China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 50.1 50.3 forecast, 50.3 previous
•China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 52.2 50.2 forecast, 50.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•8:00 Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Nov) 810.3B previous
•10:00 Greek Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors awaited more clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies. The market awaits a fresh set of U.S. economic data due next week that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for 2025, and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies.The euro is set for a 5.7% decline against the dollar this year, with traders expecting the European Central Bank to be sharper with its cuts than the Fed. On Tuesday, the single currency was steady at $1.04025, but staying close to the two-year low of $1.03315 it touched in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed against the dollar on as thin year-end liquidity kept movements within narrow ranges. With no big UK economic data coming before the New Year vacation, market activity is expected to remain muted. In the New Year, investors will focus on President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House, with questions over whether his tariff threats would extend to Britain. The pace of interest rate cut will also be scrutinized, since the Bank of England has suggested that it will ease policy gradually. Traders project around 52 basis points of rate reduction by the end of 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2618(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2666 (Dec 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2487(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2450(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar stayed near a two-year low on Tuesday as trading volume remained thin as markets headed into the New Year’s holiday on Wednesday. The Australian dollar has dropped 8.8% this year. It had reached a high of $0.6943 in September, but a wide surge in the US dollar brought it down to a two-year low of $0.6199At the same time, poor data in Australia has prompted investors to anticipate further domestic policy easing. Markets imply around a 45% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its 4.35% cash rate in February. At GMT 05:03, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.02% to $0.6240. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. The BOJ held interest rates steady at 0.25% at this month's meeting, a move governor Kazuo Ueda explained as aimed at scrutinising more data on next year's wage momentum and clarity on the incoming U.S. administration's economic policies.On Tuesday, the yen was at 157.02 per dollar, on track for a 10% decline in 2024, marking its fourth consecutive year of losses against the dollar. With Japanese markets closed for the rest of the week and most markets closed on Wednesday for the New Year's Day holiday, trading volumes are expected to be extremely low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.25(Dec 27 thlow) a break below could take the pair towards 156.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks slipped on Tuesday in cautious end-of-year trading, with investors reducing expectations of significant U.S. rate cuts in 2025 and preparing for the incoming Trump administration.
Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei N225 down 0.96% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.22%, Hang Seng gained by 0.09%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday, the last trading day of a record-breaking year that drove the metal to its best annual performance since 2010 on robust central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy easing by major global banks.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $2,603.69 per ounce, as of 0608 GMT. U.S. gold futures also shed 0.1% to $2,615.50.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday after data showed China's manufacturing activity grew in December. However, they are still expected to finish the year lower for the second consecutive year, driven by concerns about demand in major consuming countries.
Brent crude futures rose 60 cents, or 0.8%, to $74.59 a barrel as of 0530 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 62 cents, or 0.9%, to $71.61 a barrel. For the year, Brent declined 3.2%, while WTI was down 0.1%.