Posted at 30 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Chicago PMI (Dec): 36.9 ,42.7 forecast, 40.2 previous
•US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov): 2.2% ,0.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Nov): 79.0 ,77.4 previous
• US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Dec): 3.4, -2.7 previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.230% ,4.240% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.135% , 4.170% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:30 Australia Housing Credit (Nov) 0.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Nov) 0.5% previous
•01:30 China Chinese Composite PMI (Dec) 50.8 previous
•01:30 China Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 50.3 forecast, 50.3 previous
•01:30 China Y Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 50.2 forecast 50. previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the dollar on Monday as global currencies approached the end of a year defined by diverging central bank policies. The euro is set for a roughly 5.5% decline against the dollar in 2024, following four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB). Looking ahead, markets expect the ECB to implement rate cuts at a faster pace than the Federal Reserve in 2025. However, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann indicated on Saturday that the central bank might delay its next rate cut due to a recent uptick in inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound dipped against the dollar on Monday as liquidity thinned-out in holiday trading. Trading volumes are expected to remain light during the holiday-shortened week, with UK markets closing early on Tuesday and staying shut on Wednesday for New Year. Investors are preparing for uncertainty in 2025, as Donald Trump may return to the White House, potentially bringing tariff policies. Meanwhile, UK businesses are evaluating the impact of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' October budget announcement. Additionally, any signals regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy will be closely watched, as the central bank has indicated it will maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Sterling fell 0.26% to $1.2546 and is on pace for an annual loss of 1.4%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2628(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2500(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2468(Lower BB)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors assessed market conditions heading into the new year, with many opting to lock in profits. Trump has pledged a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada, in a blow to the country's crude exports to the United States. Trading volumes are expected to be thin in the holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Wednesday for the New Year. Market participants are also bracing for policy changes in the United States with Donald Trump's return to the White House. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4473(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4519(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4315(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4223(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar softened against the yen on Monday as investors weighed the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. Traders remained alert to the possibility of Japanese government intervention to support the yen if it continues to weaken, a move the authorities have made several times this year. The BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.25% this month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasizing the central bank’s focus on monitoring wage growth and the potential impact of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. While economists anticipate the BOJ may raise rates to 0.50% by the end of March, markets are only pricing in a 42% likelihood of a rate hike in January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.25(Dec 27th low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Monday, following the trend in Wall Street, as still-high government bond yields prompted investors to pull out of equities.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.57 percent.
Wall Street ended in the red on Monday, with light trading volume in the second-to-last session of a highly eventful year
Dow Jones closed down by 0.97% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.07% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.62% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped in thin trade on Monday as traders awaited fresh catalysts, including next week's U.S. economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook for 2025, as well as policies from incoming President Donald Trump.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,604.49 per ounce as of 01:42 p.m. ET (1842 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2,618.10.
Oil prices settled higher on Monday in thin late-year trade as investors bet on a drop in temperatures across the U.S. and Europe over the coming weeks to boost diesel demand.
Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $74.39 a barrel. The more active March contract settled at $73.99 a barrel, up 20 cents.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 39 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $70.99 a barrel. U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel futures settled 2.5% higher at $2.30 a gallon, the highest since Nov. 5.