Posted at 30 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.6%, 2.4% previous
Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec): 2.8%, 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Spanish HICP (MoM) (Dec): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.372% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.770% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.575% previous
•14:45 USD Chicago PMI (Dec): 42.7 forecast, 40.2 previous
•15:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov): 0.9% forecast, 2.0% previous
•15:00 USD Pending Home Sales Index (Nov): 77.4 previous
•15:30 USD Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Dec): -2.7 previous
•16:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.240% previous
•16:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.170% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday as global currencies neared the end of a year marked by diverging central bank policies. The euro is on track for a calendar-year decline of about 5.5% against the dollar, following four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2024. Markets are anticipating the ECB to adopt a faster pace of rate cuts than the Federal Reserve in 2025. However, ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann suggested on Saturday that the next rate cut from the ECB could be delayed due to a recent rise in inflation. Euro rose 0.1% to $1.0441. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound held steady against the dollar on Monday and was poised to close the year as the top-performing major currency amid the dollar's strength. Trading volumes are expected to remain light during the holiday-shortened week, with UK markets closing early on Tuesday and staying shut on Wednesday for New Year. Investors are preparing for uncertainty in 2025, as Donald Trump may return to the White House, potentially bringing tariff policies. Meanwhile, UK businesses are evaluating the impact of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' October budget announcement. Additionally, any signals regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy will be closely watched, as the central bank has indicated it will maintain a gradual approach to rate cuts due to persistent inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2628(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2500(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2468(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday, but remained near two-year low amid subdued holiday trading. Trading volumes were low with the New Year holiday approaching and a sparse economic calendar this week. The RBA's unexpected dovish shift at this month’s meeting surprised many, leading markets to raise the probability of a rate cut in February to around 50%. By April, a quarter-point cut in the 4.35% cash rate is fully priced in, with an implied rate of 3.85% by July.At GMT 13:15, the Australian dollar was last trading up 0.29% to $0.6227. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Monday as investors assessed the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, traders are on watch for any potential intervention by Japanese officials to shore up the currency if it continues to weaken, as they have done multiple times this year. The BOJ left rates unchanged at 0.25% this month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighting the central bank's close monitoring of wage trends for the upcoming year and the potential impact of the new U.S. administration's economic policies. Economists predict the BOJ may raise rates to 0.50% by the end of March, while markets are pricing in only a 42% chance of a rate hike in January. On the data front, the final Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.6, signaling the mildest contraction in three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.25(Dec 27 thlow) a break below could take the pair towards 156.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped on Monday as rising government bond yields led investors to pull back from equities, marking a slight retreat at the end of a year that had been positive for some regional markets.
At GMT 13:19 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.35 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.29 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped in thin trading on Monday, with markets awaiting next week's U.S. economic data and the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump's return to office on the Federal Reserve's 2025 outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $2,611.39 per ounce as of 0854 GMT, while U.S. gold futures also fell 0.3%, settling at $2,624.00.
Oil prices ticked higher on Monday in light holiday trading, with traders awaiting additional economic data from China and the U.S. later in the week to evaluate growth in the world's two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures rose 20 cents to $74.37 a barrel by 1208 GMT. The more active March contract was at $74.00 a barrel, up 21 cents.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 27 cents to $70.87 a barrel.