Posted at 30 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 49.6,49.5 forecast,49.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Spanish Core CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.4% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (YoY) (Dec) 2.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•08:00 Spanish CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (MoM) (Dec) 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
•08:00 Spanish HICP (YoY) (Dec) 2.6%forecast, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday as investors awaited more clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies. The U.S. central bank has reduced rates by 100 basis points this year but has hinted at fewer cuts in 2025. Markets are also bracing for significant U.S. policy shifts in 2025, including potential tariffs, deregulation, and tax changes, as Trump returns to the White House in January. The euro traded at $1.0429, staying near recent lows and in a holding pattern during the holiday period. It is set to end the year with a decline of approximately 5.5% against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0434(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0470(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0393(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Monday, but gains were limited as thin year-end liquidity kept movements within narrow ranges. With no major UK economic data scheduled ahead of the New Year holiday, market activity is expected to remain subdued. In the New Year, investors will turn their attention to President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House, with uncertainty over whether his tariff threats could extend to Britain. The focus will also be on the Bank of England's pace of interest rate cuts, as the central bank has indicated a gradual approach to its policy easing. Traders expect around 52 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2592(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2636 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2500(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2468(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday, but remained near two-year low amid subdued holiday trading. Trading volumes were low with the New Year holiday approaching and a sparse economic calendar this week. The RBA's unexpected dovish shift at this month’s meeting surprised many, leading markets to raise the probability of a rate cut in February to around 50%. By April, a quarter-point cut in the 4.35% cash rate is fully priced in, with an implied rate of 3.85% by July.At GMT 07:03 The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.43% to $0.6237. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar remained close to a five-month high against the yen on Monday as investors assessed the Bank of Japan's interest rate outlook. Meanwhile, traders are on watch for any potential intervention by Japanese officials to shore up the currency if it continues to weaken, as they have done multiple times this year. The BOJ left rates unchanged at 0.25% this month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighting the central bank's close monitoring of wage trends for the upcoming year and the potential impact of the new U.S. administration's economic policies. Economists predict the BOJ may raise rates to 0.50% by the end of March, while markets are pricing in only a 42% chance of a rate hike in January. On the data front, the final Au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI for December rose to 49.6, signaling the mildest contraction in three months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.18 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.25(Dec 27 thlow) a break below could take the pair towards 156.73(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares started the week on a subdued note on Monday, as elevated Treasury yields put pressure on high Wall Street equity valuations.
Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei N225 down 0.77% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.22%, Hang Seng gained by 0.09 %.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday as investors awaited further signals regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and President-elect Donald Trump's tariff policies, both of which could influence the metal's direction in 2025.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,622.74 per ounce as of 0506 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,635.10.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday in thin holiday trading ahead of the year-end, as traders awaited upcoming Chinese and U.S. economic data later in the week to gauge growth in the world's two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures rose 5 cents to $74.22 a barrel by 0430 GMT while the more active March contract was at $73.82 a barrel, up 3 cents.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 3 cents to $70.63 a barrel.