Posted at 27 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 1.0%,2.8%forecast,3.4% previous
•India Current Account % of GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -1.20%, -1.10% previous
• India Current Account (USD) (Q3) -11.20B, -9.70Bprevious
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•13:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Nov): -101.30B forecast, -98.26B previous
•13:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov): 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage: -125B previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories: -0.700M forecast, -0.934M previous
•16:00 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.048M previous
•16:00 US Crude Oil Imports: -1.131M previous
•16:00 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: 0.108M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Friday as the greenback eased in volatile holiday-thinned trade.The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against six currencies including the yen, euro and sterling, was down 0.17% at 107.87. It has been in a holding pattern around 108 all week after hitting a two-year high last Friday at 108.54.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said earlier this month that U.S. central bank officials would be "cautious" about further cuts following an as-expected quarter-point rate reduction.For the month, the dollar index is up 2.2%, bringing year-to-date gains to 6.6%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0519(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0363(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound rebounded strongly on Friday as greenback weakened in volatile holiday-thinned trade. Shifting expectations for more British rate cuts ahead has put pressure on the pound in recent weeks, while a hawkish Federal Reserve and a resilient U.S. economy have pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and boosted the dollar. The pound has still managed to hold up against the U.S. dollar better than other major currencies this year, and is down 1.5% in the year to date after holding its own against the greenback for much of 2024. The pound was up 0.35% against the greenback at $1.2556 after falling 0.17% earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2701 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2496(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2486(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar remained near a two-year low on Friday as RBA-Fed rate divergence, weak Chinese economy weighed on Australian dollar. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled the possibility of a near-term rate cut. The dovish tone, alongside the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts, weighed on the Aussie, already impacted by risk aversion and concerns over China's economy At 07:19 GMT, the Australian dollar was down 0.06% at 0.6217 against the greenback. At GMT 12:11 ,the Australian dollar was last trading down 0.03% to $0.6225. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased slightly on Friday but stayed near a five-month high amid light liquidity trading. The yen is headed for its fourth straight year of losses after depreciating by almost 10% versus the dollar this year.The BoJ kept rates unchanged this month, with Governor Kazuo Ueda citing uncertainty over Trump's policies and rising concerns about U.S. tariffs affecting global trade. At GMT 10.49,the dollar was down 0.14% at 157.71 against Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.91 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.81 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.26(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.640 (38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's main stock index moved higher on Friday after a two-day holiday, with modest gains seen earlier in the week, putting it on track to break a two-week losing streak.
At GMT 13:16,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.54 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.69 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday but were on track for a weekly gain as investors sought safe-haven assets amid political uncertainty in the Middle East, outweighing the pressure from a stronger dollar.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,625.78 per ounce, as of 1100 GMT. Bullion has gained 0.2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.5% to $2,641.30.
Oil prices climbed nearly 1% on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by expectations of a stimulus-fueled economic recovery in China, the world’s largest oil importer, and forecasts of declining U.S. inventories
Brent crude futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $73.86 a barrel by 1105 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 57 cents, or 0.8%, from Thursday's close to $70.19.