Posted at 26 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish PPI (YoY) (Nov) 0.9% ,-3.9% previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Nov) 2,935.0K,2,891.5K previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,880K forecast, 1,874K previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims: 223K forecast, 220K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg: 225.50K previous
•16:00 US M2 Money Supply (MoM) (Nov): 23.31T previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.230% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.230%previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as the greenback remained well-supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts at a measured pace next year. The dollar has strengthened against its major counterparts, boosted by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields since Donald Trump's election victory in early November. His proposed policies, including deregulation, tax cuts, and tariffs on trading partners, are expected to not only spur growth but also drive up inflation, leading investors to demand higher yields on Treasuries. Amid the uncertain inflation outlook, Federal Reserve policymakers signaled earlier this month that they plan to deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 than initially forecast. On the data front, traders are awaiting the U.S. jobless claims data, set to be released at 1330 GMT. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0519(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0363(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as markets await clues on the Federal Reserve's 2025 rate plan and tariff policies from the incoming Trump administration. Investors are also bracing for a slew of market-impacting changes in 2025, ranging from tariffs and deregulation to tax policy, as Donald Trump returns to the presidency in January. In addition, trading activity will be subdued as markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the Euro Zone are closed on Thursday in observance of the Boxing Day public holiday, further reducing global market liquidity. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2701 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2496(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2486(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined on Thursday as dovish expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continued to weigh on the currency. The minutes from the RBA's December meeting indicated that while the board intends to maintain a restrictive policy for now, it may consider easing as early as February. The RBA’s unexpected dovish shift at the meeting caught markets off guard, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in February, which is now estimated at around 50%. As the year comes to a close, trading volumes have started to taper off, with many market participants adopting a more cautious approach. At GMT 13:04 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.10% to $0.6225. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar steadied near a five-month high against the yen on Thursday as dollar remained on front foot in holiday-thinned trade. The dollar has rallied against yen, helped by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields since Trump's election victory in early November. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell primed markets for fewer rate cuts next year at the central bank's last policy meeting of the year, traders are now pricing in just about 35 basis points worth of easing for 2025. Uncertainties around the Federal Reserve's pace of monetary easing has supported Treasury yields. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.37 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.81 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.60(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stock markets are closed on Thursday in observance of the Boxing Day public holiday.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Thursday in holiday-thinned trade, while markets await clues on the Federal Reserve's 2025 rate plan and tariff policies from the incoming Trump administration.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,627.62 per ounce, as of 0953 GMT. U.S. gold futures added 0.3% to $2,642.30.
Oil edged higher on Thursday in thin holiday trade driven by hopes for additional fiscal stimulus in China, the world's biggest oil importer, and supported by an industry report showing a decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures rose 25 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.83 a barrel by 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.49, up 0.6%, or 39 cents, from Tuesday's pre-Christmas settlement.