Posted at 26 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan 2-Year JGB Auction 0.602%,0.454% previous
• Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Nov) -10.2% ,44.6% previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•08:00 Spanish PPI (YoY) (Nov) -3.9% previous
•11:00 France Jobseekers Total (Nov) 2,891.5K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro inched lower against dollar on Thursday as dollar remained well supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at a measured pace next year. The dollar has rallied against its major peers, helped by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields since Trump's election victory in early November.His policy plans of deregulation, tax cuts and tariffs on trading partners are expected to push up not only growth but also inflation, prompting investors to demand higher yields on Treasuries.Amid the uncertain inflation outlook, Fed policymakers indicated earlier this month that they will deliver fewer rate cuts in 2025 that they had previously forecast.Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that central bank staff and policymakers were beginning to at least preliminarily think through how Trump's policy plans will affect inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0519(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0363(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as trading volume remained low amid holiday-shortened week. Traders are closely awaiting the release of U.S. jobless claims data later today, as it may provide important insights into the health of the labor market and influence expectations for future Federal Reserve actions. At the same time, markets are bracing for significant policy shifts following Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, including potential changes in tariffs, deregulation efforts, and tax policies, which could have widespread economic impacts. In addition, trading activity will be subdued as markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, and the Euro Zone are closed on Thursday in observance of the Boxing Day public holiday, further reducing global market liquidity. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2604(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2701 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2496(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2486(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Thursday as dovish expectations from the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to exert bearish pressure on the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia's December meeting minutes revealed that the board plans to keep policy restrictive for now but may consider easing as early as February. Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with its unexpected dovish shift at the meeting, leading to a surge in the probability of a February rate cut, now estimated at around 50%.Trading volumes have started to decline as the year draws to a close, with many market players adopting a more cautious stance.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar held near a five-month high against the yen on Thursday as dollar remained on front foot in holiday-thinned trade. The dollar has rallied against yen, helped by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields since Trump's election victory in early November. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell primed markets for fewer rate cuts next year at the central bank's last policy meeting of the year, traders are now pricing in just about 35 basis points worth of easing for 2025. Uncertainties around the Federal Reserve's pace of monetary easing has supported Treasury yields. Markets in Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand were closed for a holiday on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.37 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.81 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.60(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asia shares rose slightly in holiday-thinned trade on Thursday, extending gains from earlier in the week with little news or data in the way to alter their direction.
Hang Seng was up 0.01% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 0.44 %.Japans’ Nikkei was up 1.39
Commodities Recap
Gold prices gained on Thursday as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's 2025 rate strategy and Donald Trump's potential tariff policies, which could influence the metal’s direction in the coming year.
Spot gold rose 0.5% to $2,627.16 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures increased 0.3% to $2,643.40.
Oil prices also edged higher on Thursday in thin holiday trading, fueled by expectations of additional fiscal stimulus in China, the world's largest oil importer, along with anticipation of a decline in U.S. crude inventories.
Brent crude futures rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $73.71 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $70.21 a barrel, compared to Tuesday’s pre-Christmas settlement