Posted at 24 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Gold headed for best year since 2010
•Stocks rise in holiday trading conditions
•Dollar, US yields steady near milestone highs
•Chinese authorities pledge more support for economy
•Fed outlook remains top of investors' minds
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 US Redbook (YoY) 4.8% previous
•15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index (Dec) -10 forecast, -14 previous
•15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Shipments (Dec) -12 previous
•15:00 US Richmond Services Index (Dec) 9 previous
•18:00 US 5-Year Note Auction 4.197% previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 3.1% 3.1% previous
•21:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -4.700M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, with investors weighing the likelihood of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. Over the past three months, the U.S. dollar has surged against a basket of currencies, driven by diverging central bank policies. Following its policy meeting on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer than previously anticipated, pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher and lifting the dollar 1.2% to two-year highs. With year-end approaching, trading volumes are expected to thin out, and major economic data releases will be limited. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: Sterling saw a modest gain against dollar on Tuesday driven by thin trading volumes as markets began to wind down for the Christmas break. The U.S. dollar dominated the currency market in 2024, boosted by a resilient economy and the Federal Reserve's limited scope to cut interest rates further. The focus is now on important global events in 2025, particularly Donald Trump's return to the White House, forcing central banks to adopt a more cautious monetary policy. At GMT 11:41, Sterling was last up 0.19% on the dollar at 1.2554 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USDThe Australian dollar remained under pressure on Tuesday following signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding potential rate cuts. Minutes from the RBA's December meeting revealed that while the board maintained a restrictive stance for now, it left the possibility open for easing as early as February, depending on economic data. The RBA's unexpectedly dovish shift surprised markets, pushing the likelihood of a February rate cut to around 50%. By April, a 25 basis point cut to 4.10% is fully priced in, with markets anticipating a further reduction to 3.85% by July.At GMT 13.13,the Australian dollar was last trading down 0.28% to $0.6231. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar traded in tight range against yen on Tuesday as traders were on alert to any intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned on Tuesday that authorities are ready to intervene to stabilize the yen amid excessive foreign exchange fluctuations. Kato last week explicitly described the currency market situation as alarming, signaling the government's heightened concerns over the sliding yen. Japan last intervened in the currency markets in July, conducting a yen-buying operation to support the currency after it dropped to a 38-year low, falling below 161 yen per dollar.At GMT 13.13,the dollar was up 0.03% at 157.14 against Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.37 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.81 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.60(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares nudged higher on Tuesday, although trading was quiet in the holiday-shortened week. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained near a two-year high, supported by rising U.S. Treasury yields, as investors anticipated fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
At GMT 13:16,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher in quiet holiday-period trading on Tuesday, with investors focusing on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate strategy for the upcoming year and President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff policies.
Spot gold added 0.1% at $2,614.19 per ounce, as of 1228 GMT. U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,629.10.
Oil prices gained on Tuesday, recovering from the previous session's losses, supported by a mildly positive short-term market outlook, despite thin trading volumes ahead of the Christmas holiday.
Brent crude futures were up 36 cents, or 0.5%, at $72.9 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 34 cents, also 0.5%, to $69.58 a barrel by 1213 GMT.