Posted at 23 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q3) 5.8% ,4.5% forecast, 1.4% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 1.9% ,1.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
•UK Current Account (Q3) -18.1B -22.9B ,-24.0B previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.9% 1.0%, 0.7% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.4% previous
•German Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.9%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 0.6%, -0.8% previous
•Swiss M3 Money Supply (Nov) 1,155.9B, 1,148.4B previous
• Spanish GDP (YoY) (Q3) 3.3% ,3.4% forecast, 3.1% previous
•Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.8% 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Nov) 5.91B, 5.81B previous
•Swiss ZEW Expectations (Dec) -20.0, -12.4 previous
•Belgium CPI (YoY) (Dec) 3.16% ,3.20% previous
•Belgium CPI (MoM) (Dec) 0.40%, 0.16% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Chicago Fed National Activity (Nov) -0.40 previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.1% previous
•13:30 Canada IPPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.3% forecast, 1.2% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.4% forecast, 3.8% previous
•13:30 Canada RMPI (YoY) (Nov) -2.8% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Nov) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Dallas Fed PCE (Nov) 2.30% previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.372% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.770% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.575% previous
•15:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (Dec) 112.9 forecast, 111.7 previous
•16:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction 4.250% previous
•16:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction 4.160% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined on Monday as markets continued to absorb the outcomes of recent central bank meetings, which sent the dollar to a two-year high and fueled expectations of diverging rate-cut paths globally in 2025. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, resumed its upward momentum after closing lower on Friday. It was last up 0.37%, reaching 108.21. Investor sentiment was also boosted following the U.S. government's successful avoidance of a shutdown, with Congress passing spending legislation early on Saturday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound declined against the dollar on Monday after data showed British economic output failed to grow in the third quarter, adding to the signs of a slowdown. The Office for National Statistics lowered its estimate for the change in gross domestic product output to 0.0% in the July-to-September period, down from a previous estimate of 0.1% growth. Separate data showed, British business confidence fell to its lowest level of 2024 in December, although employers were a bit more optimistic about the wider economy, according to a survey published on Monday.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December policy meeting minutes. The RBA is set to release these minutes on Tuesday, after keeping its policy unchanged earlier this month while unexpectedly hinting at the possibility of a rate cut next year. Market swaps currently imply a 70% chance of a rate cut in February, with a first cut fully priced in for April. As of 13:20 GMT, the Australian dollar was down 0.30% at 0.6232 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Monday as dollar underpinned by a relatively strong economy and higher bond yields. 10-year Treasury yields have risen sharply, surging almost 42 basis points in two weeks to around 4.54%, marking the biggest such increase since April 2022. U.S. futures are implying roughly two quarter-point cuts are priced in for next year, which would bring the benchmark rate to a range of 3.75-4.0%. Just two weeks ago, that expectation was closer to a range of 3.50-3.75%. The dollar index rose 0.35% to trade near two-year highs , having gained around 2% this month Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.37 (Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.81 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.60(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 was slightly down at the start of a holiday-shortened week, after clocking its steepest weekly drop since early September, but a spike in Novo Nordisk shares boosted the healthcare sector and capped losses on the main stock index.
At GMT 13:26,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar amid thin, holiday-season trading. Investors were also awaiting further guidance on the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy for next year, following its recent meeting, which indicated that any rate easing would be gradual.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,616.06 per ounce, as of 1158 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.6% to $2,630.00.
Oil prices stabilized on Monday after losses last week as lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data offset investors' concerns about a supply surplus next year.
Brent crude futures were down by 38 cents, or 0.52%, to $72.56 a barrel by 1300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 34 cents, or 0.49%, to $69.12 per barrel.