Posted at 20 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, -0.9% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov) 11.25B, 15.50B forecast, 18.22B previous
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Nov) 12.983B, 17.396B previous
•Italian Business Confidence (Dec): 85.8, 86.0 forecast, 86.5 previous
•Italian Consumer Confidence (Dec): 96.3, 97.0 forecast, 96.6 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Nov): 2.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•13:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous
•13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Dallas Fed PCE (Nov): 2.30% previous
•15:00 USD Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 2.9% forecast, 2.6% previous
•15:00 USD Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Dec): 3.1% forecast, 3.2% previous
•15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Dec): 71.6 forecast, 76.9 previous
•15:00 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Dec): 74.0 forecast, 71.8 previous
•15:00 USD Michigan Current Conditions (Dec): 77.7 forecast, 63.9 previous
•15:00 EUR Consumer Confidence (Dec): -14.0 forecast, -13.7 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 3.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (Oct): -3.17B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near one month low against the dollar on Friday as markets awaited key U.S. inflation print.Attention is now on the release of the core PCE price data the Fed's preferred inflation gauge later on Friday, for more insights into the U.S. economic outlook. Traders will be watching for clues on the extent of potential Fed policy easing next year, following its more cautious outlook for 2025 earlier this week. Forecasts expect a monthly increase of 0.2% for November, and any unexpected uptick could prompt markets to reduce expectations for U.S. policy easing next year. The euro eased to a one-month low of $1.03435 and was eyeing a weekly drop of 1.5% on the back of the dollar's strength. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: Sterling remained stable against the dollar on Friday but was set to finish the week lower, weighed down by differing views within the Bank of England and a U.S. Federal Reserve less inclined to cut rates. The pound held at $1.2500 after briefly dropping to a one-month low of $1.2475. The BoE kept its main interest rate at 4.75% on Thursday, though opinions were divided on whether rate cuts were necessary to address the slowing economy. In an unexpected move, three members of the BoE's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee voted for a quarter-point cut, prompting traders to price in around 60 basis points of rate cuts for next year, up from 45 basis points before the decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: Australian dollar remained near a two-year low on Friday as the stronger U.S. dollar, a weak Chinese economy, and falling commodity prices continued to weigh on the Australian dollar. The U.S. dollar gained strength following the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday. The commodities market has been pressured by the strong dollar, with oil prices declining on Friday. Gold is poised for a 1.9% drop this week, while silver is on track for its worst week since December 2023.Investors are now awaiting the core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further clues on the U.S. economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased lower on Friday after top Japanese finance officials said the government is alarmed by recent foreign exchange moves. The dollar hit a seven-month high of 157.93 on Friday after the Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged. Finance Minister Kato on Friday expressed concern over recent foreign exchange fluctuations and stated the government was prepared to intervene if speculative actions became excessive.Japan last intervened in the currency market in July, buying yen to stabilize the currency after it fell to a 38-year low of below 161 per dollar.
.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.22 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.28 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares were on track for their worst week in three months on Friday, as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's remarks about potential tariffs on the European Union unsettled investors already concerned about the U.S. interest rate outlook..
At GMT 13:23 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 1.02 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 1.43 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set for a weekly decline on Friday after the Federal Reserve's verdict on its monetary policy-easing cycle signalled a slowdown in rate cuts, while the focus shifted to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure data due later in the day.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,604.10 per ounce, as of 0628 GMT, and has lost about 1.6% so far this week.U.S. gold futures nudged 0.4% higher to $2,617.60.
Oil prices declined on Friday amid concerns about demand growth in 2025, particularly in China, the largest importer of crude
Brent crude futures fell by 41 cents, or 0.56%, to $72.47 a barrel . U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.56%, to $68.99 per barrel.
Oil prices declined on Friday amid concerns about demand growth in 2025, particularly in China, the largest importer of crude
Brent crude futures fell by 41 cents, or 0.56%, to $72.47 U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.56%, to $68.99 per barrel.