Posted at 20 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Nov) 0.4%, 0.6% previous
•Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%, 2.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•Japan National CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.9%, 2.3% previous
•Japan National CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
•Australia Housing Credit (Nov) 0.5%, 0.5% previous
•Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Nov) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.6% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Dec) 3.60%, 3.60% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.10% ,3.10% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.3%, 0.0% forecast, -0.9% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.7% forecast, 1.6% previous
•UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Nov) 11.25B, 15.50B forecast, 18.22B previous
•UK Public Sector Net Cash Requirement (Nov) 12.983B, 17.396B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:45 French PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.9% previous
•07:45 French PPI (YoY) (Nov) -5.70% previous
•09:00 Italian Business Confidence (Dec) 86.0 previous
•09:00 Italian Consumer Confidence (Dec) 97.0 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Dec) -9 previous
•11:00 UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Dec) -19 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro traded near one month low against the dollar on Friday as greenback stayed on the front foot ahead key U.S. inflation data. A closely watched U.S. inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is set to be released later in the day. Forecasts expect a monthly increase of 0.2% for November, and any unexpected uptick could prompt markets to reduce expectations for U.S. policy easing next year. The euro eased to a one-month low of $1.03435 and was eyeing a weekly drop of 1.5% on the back of the dollar's strength. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound edged up against dollar on Friday after data showed UK retail sales edged up by 0.2% in November. The monthly rise in sales was the first since August but over the three months to November, volumes were up by only 0.3%, the weakest performance since the three months to June, the ONS said on Friday. Bank of England (BoE) policymakers voted 6-3 to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, a bigger split than economists had predicted as officials disagreed over how to respond to a slowing economy that remains beset by inflation pressures.The outcome was interpreted as more dovish than expected by markets, with traders now pricing in about 53 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, up from around 46 bps before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: AUD/USD remained near a two-year low on Friday as the stronger U.S. dollar, a weak Chinese economy, and falling commodity prices continued to weigh on the Australian dollar. The U.S. dollar gained strength following the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday. The commodities market has been pressured by the strong dollar, with oil prices declining on Friday. Gold is poised for a 1.9% drop this week, while silver is on track for its worst week since December 2023.Investors are now awaiting the core PCE data, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for further clues on the U.S. economic outlook. At 04:56 GMT, the Australian dollar was down 0.23% at 0.6224 against the greenback.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased slightly against yen on Friday but remained near five month high against yen.The BOJ kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday and its governor stayed vague on how soon it could push up borrowing costs, just a day after the Federal Reserve pointed to fewer U.S. rate cuts next year. On the data front,Japan's co.re inflation accelerated in November as rising food and fuel costs hit households, data showed on Friday, keeping the central bank under pressure to raise interest rates. The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier .Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.22 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.28 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks lost more ground on Friday and were poised to close the week lower, as a hawkish U.S. rate outlook kept investor sentiment subdued.
Hang Seng was down 0.01% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 1.20%. China’s A50 fell by 0.72%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were set for a weekly decline on Friday after the Federal Reserve's verdict on its monetary policy-easing cycle signalled a slowdown in rate cuts, while the focus shifted to the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure data due later in the day.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,604.10 per ounce, as of 0628 GMT, and has lost about 1.6% so far this week.U.S. gold futures nudged 0.4% higher to $2,617.60.
Oil prices declined on Friday amid concerns about demand growth in 2025, particularly in China, the largest importer of crude
Brent crude futures fell by 41 cents, or 0.56%, to $72.47 a barrel by 0420 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.56%, to $68.99 per barrel.