Posted at 19 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Business Survey (Dec) 97, 96 forecast, 97 previous
•Sweden Interest Rate Decision 2.50%, 2.50% forecast, 2.75% previous
•Spanish Trade Balance (Oct) -3.93B ,-3.30B previous
•EU Current Account (Oct) 25.8B, 33.5B forecast, 38.8B previous
•EU Current Account n.s.a. (Oct) 32.0B, 51.5B previous
•UK BoE MPC vote cut (Dec) 3, 2 forecast, 8 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote hike (Dec) 0, 0 forecast ,0 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Dec) 6 7 forecast , 1 previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 4.75%, 4.75% forecast , 4.75% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K forecast 1,886K previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 2.10% forecast, 2.80% previous
•13:30 US Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q3) 0.0% forecast, 3.5% previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 2.8% forecast, 3.0% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 1.9% forecast, 2.5% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q3) 3.0% forecast,1.9% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 229K forecast, 242K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.25K previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q3) 1.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 2.9 forecast, -5.5 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Dec) 56.6 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Dec) 24.90 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Dec) 8.6 previous
•13:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Dec) 8.9 previous -
•13:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Dec) 26.60 previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) 3.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
•13:30Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Oct) 5.16% previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Nov) 4.09M 3.96M previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) 3.4% previous
•15:00 US Leading Index (MoM) (Nov) -0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage -123B forecast, -190B previous
•16:00 US KC Fed Composite Index (Dec) -2 previous
•16:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) -4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against the dollar on Thursday after the Federal Reserve rocked markets by signaling a much slower pace of rate cuts in 2025. The Fed cut interest rates as expected on Wednesday, but Chairman Jerome Powell's emphasis on caution going forward triggered a market sell-off. U.S. central bankers now project just two quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of 2025, half a percentage point less than previously expected in September. Traders are now focused on key upcoming data, including U.S. GDP, initial jobless claims later in the day, and the core PCE inflation measure, the Fed's preferred gauge, due on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: The pound weakened against dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged, although three policymakers voted to cut borrowing costs. The BoE kept its main rate at 4.75%, but Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, along with external members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, voted for a 25 basis point cut to 4.5%. Policymakers in the UK have been focused on persistent underlying price pressures, which are still considered too strong. The pound was last up 0.2% at $1.2609, having risen as much as 0.7% earlier in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a two-year low on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced rates by 25 basis points and signaled a slower pace of future cuts. The Fed's rate cut on Wednesday was in line with expectations, but Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that no further reductions would occur unless inflation moves closer to the Fed's target. The impact of the Fed's hawkish shift on Wednesday lingered through Thursday, causing significant adjustments in currency markets as traders revised down their expectations for rate easing in the year ahead. The Australian dollar hit a low of $0.6200 and it thereafter edged to $0.6234, up 0.51%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar hit 5-month high against yen on Thursday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept rates steady. While the BOJ maintained its short-term policy rate at 0.25%, a dissenting vote from one board member, who proposed raising borrowing costs, highlighted that the bank is still likely to tighten policy early next year. As expected, the nine-member BOJ board voted 8-1 to keep rates unchanged, signaling a cautious approach amid uncertainty over U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's economic plans. The BOJ's decision came just hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates but indicated a more cautious stance on future easing. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.22 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.28 (Higher BB). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 155.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks plunged on Thursday, heading for their largest percentage drop in five weeks, as investors pulled back from riskier assets, including equities and commodities, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's signal of a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year.
At GMT 13:09,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 1.15 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.95 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 1.08 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, recovering from a one-month low, as the market absorbed the U.S. Federal Reserve's indication of a gradual policy easing next year. Investors are now waiting for additional data to assess the health of the economy.
Spot gold climbed 1.1% to $2,617.14 per ounce as of 1149 GMT, recovering from its lowest level since November 18 earlier in the session. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures dropped 0.8% to $2,631.10.
Oil prices dropped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled a slower pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, raising concerns that weaker economic growth could reduce fuel demand and bolster the dollar.
Brent crude futures declined by 29 cents to $73.10 a barrel by 1249 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 16 cents to $70.42.