Posted at 19 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3) -1.0%, -0.2% forecast, -1.1% previous
• New Zealand GDP (YoY) (Q3) -1.5%, -0.4% forecast, -0.5% previous
• New Zealand GDP Annual Average (Q3) 0.1%, 0.6% previous
• New Zealand GDP Expenditure (QoQ) (Q3) -0.8%, -0.8% previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 706.1B, -639.1B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -587.6B, 482.9B previous
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations (Dec) 4.2%, 3.8% previous
• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (Dec) 62.3, 64.9 previous
• New Zealand NBNZ Own Activity (Dec) 50.3%, 48.0% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Nov) 98.3B, 98.1B previous
•Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.25%, 0.25%forecast, 0.25% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU Current Account (Oct) 33.5B forecast, 37.0B previous
•09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Oct) 51.5B previous
•10:00 Spanish Consumer Confidence (Nov) 79.6 previous
•10:00 Belgium Consumer Confidence (Dec) -8 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote cut (Dec) 2 forecast, 8 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote hike (Dec) 0 forecast, 0 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Dec) 7 forecast, 1 previous
•12:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 4.75% forecast, 4.75% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•12:00 BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday a hawkish tilt by the Fed on Wednesday continued to ripple across markets as traders heavily dialed back on easing expectations next year. The Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday as expected, but Powell's explicit references to the need for caution from here on sent markets into a tailspin.U.S. central bankers now project they will make just two quarter-percentage-point rate reductions by the end of 2025, which is half a percentage point less in easing next year than officials anticipated as of September. Traders are now awaiting key U.S. GDP, initial jobless claims data later in the day and core PCE data the Fed's preferred inflation measure on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0399(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0438(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0346(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0300(Psychological level)
GBP/USD: Sterling moved higher versus the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the Bank of England's policy announcement later in the day. The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates at 4.75% on Thursday, despite signs of a slowing economy, as continuing inflation pressures force it to take a cautious approach to cutting borrowing costs. Financial markets are significantly less convinced about the scope of rate reduction next year, following data released on Tuesday that showed an unexpected increase in wage growth. Late on Wednesday, investors priced in just a 50% likelihood of a rate decrease in February and only two cuts in 2025 overall . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2690(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2731 (Dec 18th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2560(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2524(Lower BB)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit two year low on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points and signaled a slower pace of future cuts.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday as expected, but Chairman Jerome Powell stated that no further cuts will occur unless inflation moves closer to the Fed's target. Spillovers from a hawkish shift by the Fed on Wednesday persisted through Thursday, affecting currency markets most as traders significantly pared back forecast for easing next year.The Australian dollar hit a low of $0.6200 and it thereafter edged to $0.6215, up 0.11%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6279(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6339(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6190(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6160(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against on Thursday as yen dipped after the Bank of Japan kept rates steady. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but one dissenting board member's proposal to push up borrowing costs showed the bank remains on track to tighten policy early next year.As widely expected, the nine-member BOJ board voted 8-1 to keep its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in a sign policymakers preferred to tread cautiously amid uncertainty over U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's economic plans. The BOJ's meeting concluded hours after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates but signalled a more cautious path of easing next year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.22 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.15(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 153.11(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks slipped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve cautioned it would temper the pace of rate cuts next year.
Hang Seng was down 0.37% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 1.95%, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.80%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices recouped initial losses to trade higher on Thursday after falling to the lowest level in a month as investors digested Federal Reserve rate decision.
Spot gold gained 0.6% to $2,603.60 per ounce as of 0608 GMT, having hit its lowest since Nov. 18 in early trade. However, U.S. gold futures were trading 1.4% lower at $2,616.40.
Oil prices dropped in Asian trade on Thursday as the Federal Reserve hinted that it might delay the pace of interest rate cuts until 2025, potentially hurting economic growth and reducing fuel consumption.
Brent futures fell 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.12 a barrel by 0701 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $70.19.