Posted at 18 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.4% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.2% previous
•UK Core PPI Output (YoY) (Nov): 1.6%, 1.6% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.5% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Nov): 3.0%, 2.8% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Nov): 135.10, 135.00 previous
•UK CPIH (YoY): 3.5%, 3.2% previous
•UK PPI Input (MoM) (Nov): 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK PPI Input (YoY) (Nov): -1.9%, -2.4% previous
•UK PPI Output (MoM) (Nov): 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK PPI Output (YoY) (Nov): -0.6%, -0.9% previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.1%, 0.5% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Nov): 3.6%, 3.7% forecast, 3.4% previous
•EU Construction Output (MoM) (Oct): 0.97%, -0.29% forecast
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.6%, -0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.3%, -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.2%, 2.3% forecast, 2.0% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Nov): 2.1%, 1.9% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Nov): -0.3%, 0.3% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Nov): 126.62, 126.67 forecast, 127.03 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Nov): 2.7%, 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Nov): -0.4%, -0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•13:30 US Building Permits (Nov): 1.430M forecast, 1.419M previous
•13:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Nov): -0.4% previous
•13:30 US Current Account (Q3): -286.0B forecast, -266.8B previous
•13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov): -3.1% previous
•13:30 US Housing Starts (Nov): 1.350M forecast,, 1.311M previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4): 3.1% forecast,, 3.1% previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories: -1.600M forecast,, -1.425M previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW): -0.251M previous
•15:30 USCrude Oil Imports: -0.170M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.298M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production: -0.086M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: 0.800M forecast, 3.235M previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production: 0.549M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•19:00 US FOMC Economic Projections
•19:00 US FOMC Statement
•19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast, 4.75% previous
•19:00 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Wednesday as investors waited to see whether the Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish rate cut. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 97% probability, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.Focus will fall on policymakers' new economic projections for the upcoming year released alongside the decision, namely how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound initially dipped but recovered ground against the dollar on Wednesday as investors digested British inflation figures. British inflation hit an eight-month high in November, but the rise in services prices, closely monitored by the Bank of England as a key indicator of underlying inflationary pressures, remained steady, providing the central bank with some relief. The rise meant inflation was moving further away from September's 1.7% - the first time that inflation had fallen below the BoE's 2% target in almost three-and-a-half years, during which time it topped 11% at its peak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2678(Dec 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a one-year low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger greenback and declining iron ore prices. Iron ore futures dropped as easing supply concerns and furnace maintenance in China led to slightly weaker demand. The dollar gained after Tuesday’s Commerce Department report showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, surpassing expectations, with notable gains in motor vehicle and online shopping sales. Looking ahead, markets are bracing for potential interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6340(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6370(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.62741(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar held steady against the yen on Wednesday as market focus turned to upcoming rate decisions by both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.The Fed's interest rate decision is due at 19:00 GMT. Markets forecast a 25 basis-point cut, while several analysts expect guidance for 2025 to be more hawkish The BOJ is set to announce its decision on December 19th, alongside its Monetary Policy Statement and a press conference. Market expectations have shifted, with a significant reduction in bets on a rate hike this Thursday, now favoring a potential increase in January, following several media reports suggesting the bank may adopt a more cautious approach.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged higher on Wednesday, lifted by Renault on talks of a potential merger between Japan's Honda and Nissan , though gains were capped on caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and outlook.
At GMT 13:13 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.06 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is also expected to offer guidance on its outlook for next year.
Spot gold inched down 0.1% to $2,643.79 per ounce by 1256 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,659.80.
Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and its projections for 2025
At 1201 GMT, Brent futures rose 42 cents, or 0.57%, to $73.61 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased by 47 cents, or 0.67%, to $70.55 a barrel.