Posted at 18 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Adjusted Trade Balance: -0.38T, -0.45T forecast, -0.23T previous
•Japan Exports (YoY) (Nov): 3.8%, 2.8% forecast, 3.1% previous
•Japan Imports (YoY) (Nov): -3.8%, 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Japan Trade Balance (Nov): -117.6B, -688.9B forecast, -462.1B previous
Looking Ahead Economic (GMT)
•07:00 UK CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•07:00 UK CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•07:00 UK CPI, n.s.a (Nov): 135.00 previous
•07:00 UK CPIH (YoY) (Nov): 2.6% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Input (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Input (YoY) (Nov): -2.3% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Output (MoM) (Nov): 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•07:00 UK PPI Output (YoY) (Nov): -0.8% previous
•07:00 UK RPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% previous
•10:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Oct): -0.10% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•10:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Nov): -0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.3% forecast, 2.0% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Nov): 1.9% previous
•10:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Nov): 0.3% previous
•10:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Nov): 126.67 forecast, 127.03 previous
•10:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Nov): 2.8% forecast, 2.7% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro regained some ground on Wednesday as investors waited to see whether the Federal Reserve will deliver a hawkish cut. The Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 97% probability, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.Focus will fall on policymakers' new economic projections for the upcoming year released alongside the decision, namely how much further Fed officials think they will reduce rates in 2025. The euro sat at $1.0502, up 0.09%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound traded flat against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of the UK's November CPI figures later in the day. The upcoming inflation data is seen as crucial for gauging the Bank of England's (BoE) next steps on interest rates. The figures are likely to provide key insights into whether the BoE will maintain its current stance or adjust its policy. The central bank is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with markets anticipating rates to stay at 4.75%. Looking ahead, money markets suggest traders expect the BoE to cut rates by approximately 70 basis points next year. Sterling was nearly flat at $1.2709.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2678(Dec 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar fell to a one-year low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger greenback and declining iron ore prices. Iron ore futures dropped as easing supply concerns and furnace maintenance in China led to slightly weaker demand. The dollar gained after Tuesday’s Commerce Department report showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, surpassing expectations, with notable gains in motor vehicle and online shopping sales. Looking ahead, markets are bracing for potential interest rate changes from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6340(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6370(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6300(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.62741(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped against the yen on Wednesday as the yen gained strength ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision. The BOJ is set to announce its decision on December 19th, alongside its Monetary Policy Statement and a press conference. Market expectations have shifted, with a significant reduction in bets on a rate hike this Thursday, now favoring a potential increase in January, following several media reports suggesting the bank may adopt a more cautious approach. On the economic front, Japan's exports rose 3.8% year-on-year in November, surpassing the median market forecast of a 2.8% increase.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
apan's Nikkei share average fell on Wednesday, as technology stocks tracked Wall Street's weak finish overnight, while a report of a Honda-Nissan tie-up boosted auto shares.
Hang Seng was up 1.06% , and South Korea's KOSPI was up by 1.12%, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.73%, China’s A50 fell by 0.05%.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices traded within a narrow range early on Wednesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the anticipated interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, while also considering the potential supply impact of tighter sanctions on Russia.
At 0420 GMT, Brent futures gained 1 cent, reaching $73.20 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1 cent to $70.08 a barrel.
Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as the markets focused squarely on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision later in the day along with insights on its plans for the coming year.
Spot gold was mostly unchanged at $2,644.97 per ounce by 0459 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were flat at $2,660.10.