Posted at 17 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Retail Control (MoM) (Nov) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• US Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 3.80%, 2.90% previous
• US Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
• Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.0%, 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
• Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.6%, 1.7% previous
• Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, 0.4% previous
• Canada CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.9%, 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
• Canada CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Oct) 21.55B, 24.50B previous, 29.65B previous
• Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Oct) -2.650B, 4.140B previous
• Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.6%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
• Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
• Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.7%, 2.6% forecast, 2.7% previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 4.8%, 4.2% previous
• US Capacity Utilization Rate (Nov) 76.8%, 77.3% forecast, 77.0% previous
• US Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) -0.90%, 0.10% forecast, -0.45% previous
• US Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov) -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, -0.4% previous
• US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.5% forecast, -0.7% previous
• US Business Inventories (MoM) (Oct) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec) 46, 47 forecast, 46 previous
• US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 3.1%, 3.3% previous, 3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Australia MI Leading Index (MoM) 0.2% previous
•23:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Dec) 5.3% previous
•23:50 Japan Adjusted Trade Balance -0.45T forecast, -0.36T previous
•23:50 Japan Exports (YoY) (Nov) 2.8% forecast, 3.1% previous
•23:50 Japan Imports (YoY) (Nov) 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•23:50 Japan Trade Balance (Nov) -688.9B forecast, -462.1B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data showed underlying economic strength in US economy, while investors awaited interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. U.S. retail sales rose 0.7% in November, fueled by higher motor vehicle and online purchases. Markets widely expect the Fed to announce a 25-basis-point rate cut at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, with futures pricing in a nearly 97% probability of the move, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar after data showed British wage growth picked up more strongly than expected in the three months to October. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.2% compared to the same period last year, according to the Office for National Statistics. The BoE will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with markets expecting rates to stay at 4.75%. Looking ahead, money markets anticipate the BoE will cut rates by around 70 basis points next year. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2709, having bounced from an earlier session low of $1.2668.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2728 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2784 (12th Dec high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar slid to almost a five-year low against the U.S. dollar, pressured by political turmoil and a widening gap between Canadian and U.S. bond yields, following data showing a surprise dip in Canadian inflation. Canada's annual inflation rate fell to 1.9% in November from 2% in October. While core inflation measures tracked by the Bank of Canada rose, markets still expect another rate cut in January. Oil prices fell 1.2% due to concerns over demand, triggered by disappointing economic data from Germany and China. The loonie dropped 0.6% to 1.4323 per U.S. dollar, marking its lowest point since March 2020. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4316(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4365 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4228(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4165(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar slipped against the yen on Tuesday as market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike this week faded, with most participants now anticipating a move in January. Over 90% of traders expect the BOJ to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. While the BOJ ended its negative interest rate policy in March and raised the short-term target to 0.25% in July, it has signaled that another hike could occur if wages and prices align with projections, ensuring Japan’s path to sustainable 2% inflation. Despite this, the central bank has remained cautious on timing, causing fluctuating expectations for a rate increase between December and January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe's STOXX 600 dropped to two-week lows on Tuesday, weighed down by declines in energy and bank stocks, as investors braced for key central bank decisions later in the week.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.81 percent, Germany's Dax closed down by 0.33 percent, France’s CAC closed up by 0.12 percent.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Tuesday as investors digested economic data and braced for upcoming central bank decisions, including an anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.61%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.39% percent, Nasdaq closed down by 0.33% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dipped on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, as investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, with expectations building for a gradual pace of rate cuts in 2025.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,647.81 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $2,662 as of (1841 GMT).
Oil prices dropped about 1% to a one-week low on Tuesday, driven by demand concerns following weak economic data from Germany and China.
Brent futures fell by 72 cents, or 1.0%, closing at $73.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $70.08.