Posted at 17 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Oct): 5.2%, 5.0% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Oct): 5.2%, 4.6% forecast, 4.4% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Nov): 0.3K, 28.2K forecast, -10.9K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Oct): 173K, -12K forecast, 253K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Oct): 4.3%, 4.3% forecast, 4.3% previous
•Italian Trade Balance (Oct): 5.153B, 3.220B forecast, 2.583B previous
•Italian Trade Balance EU (Oct): -0.66B, -1.17B previous
•German Business Expectations (Dec): 84.4, 87.5 forecast, 87.0 previous
•German Current Assessment (Dec): 85.1, 84.0 forecast, 84.3 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Dec): 84.7, 85.5 forecast, 85.6 previous
•German ZEW Current Conditions (Dec): -92.6, -91.4 previous
•German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): 6.8, 7.4 previous
•EU Trade Balance (Oct): 11.7B, 12.5B previous
•EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): 12.2, 12.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:30 Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): 0.4%forecast ,0.1% previous
• 13:30 Retail Control (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% forecast, -0.1% previous
• 13:30 Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov): 2.85% previous
• 13:30 Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): 0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
• 13:30 Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): 1.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous
•13:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Oct): 24.50B forecast, 29.30B previous
•13:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Oct): 4.140B previous
•13:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous
•13:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Nov): 0.1% forecast, -0.4% previous
•13:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Nov): 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
•14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Nov): 77.3% forecast, 77.1% previous
•14:15 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): 0.10% forecast, -0.29% previous
•14:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
•14:15 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Nov): 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
•15:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Oct): 0.2%, forecast 0.1% previous
•15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Dec): 47 forecast, 46 previous
•15:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Oct): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•10:00 EU ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Tuesday after a key survey revealed a worse-than-expected decline in German business sentiment for December. The Ifo institute's business climate index dropped to 84.7, down from a slightly revised 85.6 the previous month, as companies grew more pessimistic about the coming months due to geopolitical uncertainty and an industrial slump in Europe's largest economy. While Germany's upcoming elections may create short-term uncertainty, the ZEW institute sees them as potentially positive in the long run, with hopes that a new government could address the country's economic challenges. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar after data showed UK wage growth exceeded expectations in the three months to October, increasing the likelihood that the Bank of England will not rush to cut rates next year. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.2% compared to the same period last year, according to the Office for National Statistics. The BoE will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, with markets expecting rates to stay at 4.75%. Looking ahead, money markets anticipate the BoE will cut rates by around 70 basis points next year. Sterling was last up 0.1% at $1.2693, having bounced from an earlier session low of $1.26685.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2728 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2784 (12th Dec high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25% to 4.50%. The focus will be on any guidance regarding future rate cuts. Meanwhile, a Westpac survey showed a decline in consumer sentiment for December, as worries about the economic outlook overshadowed improvements in personal finances. The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index dropped 2.0%, reversing some of the gains made in the previous two months. At GMT 13:11, The Australian dollar was trading down 0.41 % to $0.6344. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6482(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6341(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6311(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday as investors awaited Bank of Japan rate decision this week . Over 90% of market participants expect the BOJ to keep interest rates unchanged at this week's policy meeting. After ending negative interest rates in March and raising the short-term policy target to 0.25% in July, the BOJ has signaled it could hike again if wages and prices meet projections and Japan is on track to sustainably reach 2% inflation. However, the central bank has been cautious about the timing of the next rate hike, leading to fluctuating market expectations for a move between December and January. Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped to two-week lows on Tuesday, led by declines in energy and healthcare stocks, as investors waited for key central bank decisions later in the week.
At GMT 13:15 ,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.07 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Tuesday, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, as investors focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Expectations point to a cautious approach to monetary policy easing next year.
As of 1228 GMT, spot gold was down 0.4% at $2,642.72 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,658.00.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as weaker Chinese economic data raised concerns over demand, while investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision.
Brent crude futures eased 66 cents to $73.25 a barrel by 1244 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 74 cents at $69.97.