Posted at 17 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Housing Starts (Nov) 262.4K, 246.0K forecast, 242.2K previous.
•US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec) 0.20, 6.40 forecast, 31.20 previous
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.372%, 2.641% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.770%, 2.817% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.575%, 2.641% previous
•US Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 48.3, 49.4 forecast, 49.7 previous
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 56.6, 55.1 forecast, 54.9 previous
•US Services PMI (Dec) 58.5, 55.7 forecast, 56.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:00 New Zealand Budget Balance (Jul) -21.860B previous
•00:00 New Zealand Net Debt Forecast (Jul) 43.10% previous
•00:00 New Zealand Economic Forecast (Jul) -11.070B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Oter Releases (GMT)
•No Events ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as traders assessed the economic, political, and monetary outlook for the Eurozone. Germany's parliament accepted Chancellor Olaf Scholz's invitation to withdraw confidence in him and his government, deepening political uncertainty. Economic surveys showed Germany's downturn eased slightly in December, but business activity still contracted for a sixth consecutive month. Meanwhile, France's services sector continued to shrink. Overall, the decline in Eurozone business activity moderated, with the dominant services industry rebounding to growth, according to HCOB's preliminary composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against the dollar on Monday, supported by a survey of business activity that showed rising prices in Britain and ahead of a series of central bank meetings, including the Bank of England on Thursday. The survey also revealed that British businesses cut staff numbers at the fastest pace in almost four years, raised prices, and grew more pessimistic about the future. The preliminary S&P Global Flash Composite PMI for December held at 50.5, just above the 50.0 mark separating growth from contraction, though it fell short of economists' expectations for a rise to 50.7. The pound rose as much as 0.52% against the greenback on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2694(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar hit a 4-1/2-year low against the U.S. dollar on Monday before recovering as investors assessed the fiscal implications of the unexpected resignation of Canada's finance minister. Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy disagreement with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, rejecting his plans for increased spending as political gimmicks. Freeland's resignation came just hours before she was set to present a fall economic update, expected to reveal a much larger 2023/24 budget deficit than anticipated. The loonie traded nearly unchanged at 1.4225 to the U.S. dollar after hitting its weakest intraday level since April 2020 at 1.4268. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4271(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4291 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4174(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4106(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as the yen weakened on expectations that the Bank of Japan will likely hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. The Bank of Japan rate decision is due December 19th, along with its Monetary Policy Statement, followed by a press conference. While conditions for another hike to 0.5% are falling into place, policymakers appear to be in no rush. Markets are currently pricing an approximate 24% probability of a rate increase. Japanese data includes core machinery orders, manufacturing PMI, trade figures and CPI.Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed lower on Monday, weighed down by declines in luxury and energy stocks following disappointing data from China. French stocks underperformed after oody's unexpectedly downgraded the country's credit rating.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax closed down by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC closed down by 0.72 percent.
Megacap tech stocks boosted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to higher closes on Monday, as U.S. Treasury yields paused and investors prepared for a busy week of central bank meetings.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.25% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.38% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.24% percent.
Commodities Recap
Spot gold prices gained on Monday, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns and a softer dollar, as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, where a third rate cut and clues on the 2025 outlook are expected.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,654.27 per ounce as of 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% lower at $2,670.
Oil futures dipped from their highest levels in several weeks on Monday, pressured by weak consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer, and as investors paused buying ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Brent crude futures settled at $73.91 a barrel, down 58 cents, or 0.8% lower, after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $70.71 a barrel, shedding 58 cents, and also down 0.8% the session after it registered its highest close since Nov. 7.