Posted at 16 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 41.9, 43.2 forecast, 43.1 previous
•French S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec): 46.7, 45.9 previous
•French Services PMI (Dec): 48.2, 46.9 forecast, 46.9 previous
• German Composite PMI (Dec): 47.8, 47.2 previous
•German Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 42.5, 43.1 forecast, 43.0 previous
•German Services PMI (Dec): 51.0, 49.5 forecast, 49.3 previous
•EU Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 45.2, 45.3 forecast, 45.2 previous
•EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec): 49.5, 48.3 previous
•EU Services PMI (Dec): 51.4, 49.5 forecast, 49.5 previous
•UK Composite PMI (Dec): 50.5, 50.5 previous
•UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 47.3, 48.4 forecast, 48.0 previous
•UK Services PMI (Dec): 51.4, 50.9 forecast, 50.8 previous
•Italian HICP (MoM) (Nov): -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•Italian HICP (YoY) (Nov): 1.5%, 1.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•EU Wages in Eurozone (YoY) (Q3): 4.40%, 4.90% previous
•EU Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q3): 4.60%, 4.60% forecast, 5.20% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec): 6.40 forecast, 31.20 previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.641% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.817% previous
•14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.641% previous
•14:45 US Manufacturing PMI (Dec): 49.4 forecast, 49.7 previous
•14:45 USD S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec): 54.9 previous
•14:45 USD Services PMI (Dec): 55.7 forecast, 56.1 previous
•16:30 USD 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.300% previous
•16:30 USD 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.200% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•16:30 ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•20:45 Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Monday as investors shifted focus to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, with markets almost fully pricing in the move. The economic projections, statement, and press conference will be key in shaping future expectations. The Euro Zone has a light data week with regional PMIs, labour costs and final CPI. German Ifo business climate and ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys are due. The euro edged up 0.12% to $1.05155, after dipping to $1.045375 at the end of last week, its weakest since Nov. 26.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged rose against the dollar and euro on Monday as a survey of business activity pointed to a rise in prices in Britain and as investors braced for a string of central bank meetings this week, including the Bank of England on Thursday.British businesses this month cut staff numbers at the fastest pace in almost four years, raised prices and turned more pessimistic about the outlook, a survey showed on Monday.The preliminary S&P Global Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index held at 50.5 in December, remaining just above the 50.0 line that separates growth from contraction, but below expectations in a poll of economists for a rise to 50.7.The pound rose as much 0.52% against the greenback on Monday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2678(Dec 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar held near a one-year low against dollar on Monday as markets evaluated the likelihood of U.S. policy easing beyond this week. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.25% to 4.50%.The Australian data calendar is light this week, but the government will release its budget outlook on Wednesday, forecasting larger deficits due to China's economic weakness. At GMT 12:31, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.08% to $0.6355. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6482(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6341(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6311(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as the yen weakened on expectations that the Bank of Japan will likely hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. The Bank of Japan rate decision is due December 19th, along with its Monetary Policy Statement, followed by a press conference. While conditions for another hike to 0.5% are falling into place, policymakers appear to be in no rush. Markets are currently pricing an approximate 24% probability of a rate increase. Japanese data includes core machinery orders, manufacturing PMI, trade figures and CPI. At GMT 06:38, the pair was trading up 0.25% at 153.96, highest level since November 27th high .Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
French stocks led losses across European markets on Monday after a surprise ratings downgrade by Moody's, while signs of easing strain on euro zone business activity failed to enthuse investors.
At GMT 12:43,UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last down by 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was last down by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.80 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,663.23 per ounce as of 1222 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,682.50.
Oil futures fell from their highest levels in weeks on Monday, driven by weaker-than-expected consumer spending in China, the world's largest oil importer.
Brent crude futures fell 60 cents, or 0.81%, to $73.89 a barrel by 1043 GMT after settling on Friday at their highest since Nov. 22.