Posted at 16 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Australia Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 48.2, 49.4 previous
•Australia Services PMI (Dec) 50.4, 50.5 previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct) 5.6%, 0.7% forecast, -4.8% previous
•Japan Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Oct) 2.1%, 1.2% forecast, -0.7% previous
•Japan Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 49.5, 49.2 forecast, 49.0 previous
•Japan Services PMI (Dec) 51.4, 50.5 previous
•China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov) 3.3%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•China Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov) 5.4%, 5.4% forecast, 5.3% previous
•China Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov) 5.8%, 5.8% previous
•China Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 3.0%, 4.6% forecast, 4.8% previous
•China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Nov) 3.45%, 3.51% previous
•China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Nov) 5.0%, 5.0% forecast, 5.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT
•08:00 French Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 43.2 forecast, 43.1 previous
•08:00 French S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 45.9 previous
• 08:00 French Services PMI (Dec) 46.9 forecast, 46.9 previous
• 08:00 French Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 43.2 forecast, 43.1 previous
• 08:00 French S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 45.9 previous
• 08:00 French French Services PMI (Dec) 46.9 forecast, 46.9 previous
• 08:30 German Composite PMI (Dec) 47.2 previous
• 08:30 German Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 43.1 forecast, 43.0 previous
• 08:30 German Services PMI (Dec) 49.5 forecast, 49.3 previous
•09:00 EUR Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 45.3 forecast, 45.2 previous
•09:00 EU S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec) 48.3 previous
•09:00 EU Services PMI (Dec) 49.5 forecast, 49.5 previous
•09:30 UK Composite PMI (Dec) 50.5 previous
•09:30 UK Manufacturing PMI (Dec) 48.4 forecast, 48.0 previous
•09:30 UK Services PMI (Dec) 50.9 forecast, 50.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•08:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•08:35 President Lagarde Speaks
•08:45 ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro regained some ground on Monday as the dollar eased slightly ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday, with markets almost fully pricing in the move. The economic projections, statement, and press conference will be key in shaping future expectations. The Euro Zone has a light data week with regional PMIs, labour costs and final CPI. German Ifo business climate and ZEW Economic Sentiment surveys are due. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks on Monday. The euro edged up 0.12% to $1.05155, after dipping to $1.045375 at the end of last week, its weakest since Nov. 26.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0525(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0587(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0454(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar Monday as investors looked ahead to Bank of this week’s England's rate decision. The Bank of England's rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, with expectations that it will maintain the Bank Rate at 4.75%. This is largely due to ongoing wage pressures and the fiscal policies outlined by the new government, particularly its tax and spending plans. In addition to the rate decision, several key UK data releases are expected, including Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, employment data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data, and retail sales figures, which will provide further insight into the state of the UK economy.Sterling rose 0.18% to $1.26315, pulling up from $1.26075 on Friday, its lowest point since Nov. 27. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2678(Dec 13th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2728 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2600(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2498(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: AUD/USD edged higher on Monday but remained close to a one-year low as markets evaluated the likelihood of U.S. policy easing beyond this week. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and it is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to a new range of 4.25% to 4.50%.The Australian data calendar is light this week, but the government will release its budget outlook on Wednesday, forecasting larger deficits due to China's economic weakness. At GMT 05:51, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.23% to $0.63575. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6482(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6341(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6311(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as the yen weakened, with expectations that the Bank of Japan will likely hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting. The Bank of Japan rate decision is due December 19th, along with its Monetary Policy Statement, followed by a press conference. While conditions for another hike to 0.5% are falling into place, policymakers appear to be in no rush. Markets are currently pricing an approximate 24% probability of a rate increase.On the data front Japan's factory activity shrank for the sixth straight month on lacklustre demand while the service sector extended gains in December, business surveys showed on Monday.The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped at a slower pace to 49.5 in December from 49.0 in November. At GMT 06:38, the pair was trading up 0.03% at 153.65, highest level since November 27th high .Immediate resistance can be seen at 154.21 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 155.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 153.09(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.95(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dipped on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of central bank meetings and key economic data releases scheduled for the week.
Hang Seng was down 0.98% , and South Korea's KOSPI was down by 0.22%, Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.07%, China’s A50 fell by 0.05%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday as investors anticipated a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, with attention on the central bank's guidance for rate cuts in the coming year.
Spot gold was up 0.1% to $2,650.86 per ounce as of 0532 GMT. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $2,669.00.
Oil futures eased from their highest levels in weeks as traders took profits, awaiting the Federal Reserve meeting later this week for clues on potential further rate cuts.
Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $74.28 a barrel by 0424 GMT after settling at their highest level since Nov. 22 on Friday.