Posted at 13 December 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Import Price Index (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, -0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) (Nov) 1.3%, 0.6% previous
•Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q3) 79.3%, 78.9% forecast, 79.1% previous
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct) 2.1%, 1.2% forecast, -0.6% previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Oct) 163.6K, 166.6K previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct) 1.0%, 0.5% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US . Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 482, 482 previous
•US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 589, 589 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 China Y FDI (Nov) -29.80% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro gained some strength versus the dollar a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates, amid short-covering and higher bund yields. On Friday, Germany's 10-year bond yield, which serves as the eurozone's benchmark, increased by around 2 basis points to 2.21%.Eurozone markets swung on Thursday as the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3% and signaled the possibility of more cuts, though analysts disagreed on how quickly it would lower borrowing costs.ECB President Christine Lagarde noted a lot of uncertainty while commenting on the rate decrease decision, but she also warned that domestic inflation remained uncomfortably high and that triumph over excessive price growth was not yet complete. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0548(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0614(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0448(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0411(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened against the dollar after data showed an unexpected contraction in the UK economy in October, which may heighten traders' expectations for faster interest rate cuts by the Bank of England next year. The UK's economy shrank for a second consecutive month in October, leading up to the government's first budget. This marks the first back-to-back decline in output since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Gross domestic product dropped by 0.1% month-on-month in October, mirroring the decline seen in September, according to economists. While the Bank of England is anticipated to keep rates steady at its policy meeting next week, this data could prompt traders to expect faster rate cuts in the coming year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2677(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2735 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2592(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2500(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency fell to a four-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar on Friday, as investors worried about a potential trade war between the two countries and reduced their expectations on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025. Some Canadian province premiers are asking Ottawa to take a strong response to the potential of US tariffs, Canada's finance minister said on Wednesday. Domestic data for October showed that factory sales increased 2.1% from September, while wholesale commerce up 1.0%, suggesting that lower borrowing costs are helping to stimulate the economy. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point, to 3.25%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4243(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4282 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4213(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4152(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened on Friday as the yen weakened, with traders scaling back expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike next week. Sources familiar with the Bank’s thinking suggest that policymakers are inclined to maintain current interest rates, focusing instead on assessing overseas risks and gathering more information on next year’s wage outlook. Such a decision could increase the likelihood of a rate hike in January or March, when more wage growth data is expected. However, there is no consensus within the central bank, as some members still believe Japan has met the conditions for a rate hike in December. The dollar gained 0.69%, rising to 153.68 against the yen, having strengthened throughout the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.60 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00 (Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 152.35(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.66(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Friday, marking their first weekly decline in three, as investors sought clarity on the euro zone's monetary easing plans amid worries over slowing growth and a potential trade war.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.14 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.15 percent.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, pressured by a sharp decline in UnitedHealth and a pullback in technology stocks, as investors looked ahead to Friday's jobs report for clues on the economy and Federal Reserve policy.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.20% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.01% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.11% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, but the metal was still on track for a weekly gain, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Spot gold was down 1.1% at $2,652.29 per ounce at 01:43 p.m. ET (1843 GMT), as the U.S. dollar was steady at its highest in more than two weeks.
Oil prices rose by around 2% on Friday, closing at a three-week high. The increase was driven by expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies, along with the potential for lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. to boost fuel demand
Brent futures rose $1.08, or 1.5%, to settle at $74.49 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.27, or 1.8%, to settle at $71.29.