Posted at 05 November 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Trade Balance (Sep): 2.826B, 0.940B forecast, 0.184B previous
•Australia Exports (MoM) (Sep): 2.3%, 3.7% previous
•Australia Imports (MoM) (Sep): -3.3%, 6.2% previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Oct): 51.7, 52.0 forecast, 51.3 previous
•Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Oct): 52.10, 52.30 forecast, 52.30 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•08:30 Italy HCOB Construction PMI (Oct): 46.5 previous
•08:30 Germany HCOB Construction PMI (Oct): 43.5 previous
•08:30 France HCOB Construction PMI (Oct): 39.8 previous
•08:30 Eurozone HCOB Construction PMI (Oct): 43.4 previous
•09:00 UK New Passenger Cars Registration (Oct): 350,536 previous
•09:00 Italy Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep): 0.5% previous
•09:00 Italy Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep): 0.0% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Oct): 46.4 forecast, 46.1 previous
•10:00 Eurozone PPI (MoM) (Sep): 2.5% forecast, 1.9% previous
•10:00 Eurozone PPI (YoY) (Sep): 10.9% forecast, 8.2% previous
•12:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) 4.00% forecast, 3.75% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : ? ?The euro firmed on Thursday as dollar extended its decline in the aftermath of an overwhelming victory by Democrats in US midterm elections, which sent oil prices sharply lower and buoyed risk sentiment.Democrats swept to majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives, spurring gains in US Treasuries and global equities, though doubts remained about whether the new Congress would be as accommodating to the AI sector.Despite the political shift in the US, expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remained largely intact. Markets are pricing in an 80.7% chance of a rate increase of at least 25 basis points from the Fed at its December meeting, according to CME FedWatch, up from 77.4% in the prior session.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1258 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1301(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1193(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1156(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded near 7 week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement on Thursday. The Bank of England is widely ?expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years on Thursday due to mounting inflation pressures from the US-Iran war, taking a path already embarked on by all its main peers. At the BoE's last meeting in September there was a 6-3 majority in favour of keeping rates on hold. Last month Governor Andrew Bailey said businesses appeared ?to be absorbing higher costs much more than in 2022, when inflation hit 11% after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Economists polled by Reuters expect the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee to vote 7-2 to raise Bank Rate to 4% from 3.75% — the first increase since August 2023, when inflation was over 6%, and the first change in rates since a cut last December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3466(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3514(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3397(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3341 (61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Thursday amid broad-based US dollar weakness after Democrats made significant gains in the midterm elections.Democrats secured substantial majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, easing concerns over disputed election results.On the data front, Australia's goods trade surplus widened sharply in September as LNG and metals exports surged while gold imports declined, data showed Thursday.The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the balance on goods recorded a surplus of A$2.83 billion ($1.98 billion) in September, up from A$184 million in August.Swaps price in just a 6% probability of an RBA rate hike next month, with 6 basis points of additional tightening expected by early next year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7045(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7058(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6986 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6977(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar weakened against yen on Thursday as yen firmed after minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting reinforced expectations for further interest rate hikes.Minutes from the BOJ's September meeting revealed that policymakers supported continued monetary tightening, with some signalling scope for more rapid rate increases, reinforcing the case for a December hike.The board debated the neutral interest rate and investors' expectations for the BOJ's terminal rate, signalling growing concerns about how far borrowing costs could rise without slowing economic activity excessively.Minutes showed that many BOJ policymakers expected consumer inflation to pick up from autumn, as surveys indicated a growing number of food price increases. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.48(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.95(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.35(Daily low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks traded mixed on Thursday as a sharp selloff in semiconductor shares triggered a trading curb in South Korea, offsetting gains from falling oil prices following the Democrats' midterm election victories in the US.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.66% , Hang Seng was up at 3.64%, China A50 was down at 0.32%
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed to a more than two-week high on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar and Treasury yields, while easing oil prices helped ease inflation concerns amid growing hopes of a US-Iran peace deal following Democratic gains in the midterm elections.
Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,123.71 per ounce by 0609 GMT, after touching its highest ?since October 20 earlier in the session. Bullion climbed about 3.4% on Wednesday, ?its biggest daily gain since August 19
Oil prices declined for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday as Democrats' gains in the US congressional elections fuelled hopes of reduced tensions in the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Brent futures fell 80 cents, or 0.85% to $93.82 a barrel as of 0426 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.2, or 1.36%, to $86.92.