Posted at 26 October 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Coincident Indicator (MoM) (Aug) -1.8%, -1.9% forecast, 1.7% previous
•Japan Leading Index (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•Japan Leading Index (Aug) 118.0, 118.0 forecast, 117.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 Germany Business Expectations (Oct) 90.4 previous
•09:00 Germany Ifo Business Climate Index (Oct) 90.0 forecast, 89.9 previous
•09:00 Germany Current Assessment (Oct) 89.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : ?The euro edged higher on Monday after France avoided a credit rating downgrade from Moody’s, easing concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook amid ongoing social unrest. Moody’s left France’s sovereign rating unchanged at Aa3 on Friday, although the rating remains on a negative outlook that has been in place since October last year. The decision provided some relief to the French government as it seeks to contain public discontent and restore stability to strained public finances.Moody’s said its assessment assumes that France will adopt a budget aimed at reducing the deficit in 2027, while financing costs and social tensions are expected to ease somewhat over the coming months. The agency’s decision suggests that its current rating remains dependent on the government’s ability to implement credible fiscal consolidation measures.France’s finance ministry welcomed the decision, saying the unchanged rating reflected the credibility of the government’s proposed 2027 finance bill. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1245(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1340(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1188(Daily high), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1125(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Monday as the US dollar eased modestly , offering some support to the British pound. Sentiment was also supported by US-coordinated diplomatic efforts involving Qatar to de-escalate regional tensions. However, the pair's upside remained limited as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East, keeping inflation risks in focus. Investors are turning their attention to Wednesday's UK budget announcement, which could provide fresh insights into the government's fiscal priorities and economic outlook. According to The Times, the UK finance minister is expected to announce a 3.9% increase in the state pension. The government is also reportedly preparing a £20 billion capital boost for two state-backed lenders, with the measures likely to attract market attention for their potential implications for public finances and economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3403(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.34209(Oct 22nd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3289(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3272 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher as investors awaited key inflation data that could determine whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) proceeds with another interest-rate hike in the near term. The currency found support against the US dollar as expectations of further monetary tightening strengthened, raising the possibility of a fifth rate increase this year. However, the outlook remains uncertain after Australia's unemployment rate climbed to 4.7%, its highest level in five years, highlighting signs of weakness in the labour market.Australia's quarterly inflation report, due on Wednesday, is expected to play a crucial role in shaping the RBA's policy outlook. The trimmed mean consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of underlying inflation, is forecast to rise 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, leaving annual underlying inflation at 3.6%.RBA Governor Michele Bullock and senior policymakers are also scheduled to testify before lawmakers on Wednesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7045(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7058(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6986 (38.2% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6977(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged higher against the Japanese yen on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of a busy week of major central bank policy decisions and key economic data releases. Five major central banks are scheduled to review their monetary policy settings, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, investors will closely monitor their policy statements for signals on the possibility of further tightening in December, as persistent inflation pressures continue to influence the global monetary policy outlook.The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% at its two-day meeting concluding on Friday. A pause would allow policymakers to assess the impact of previous rate increases on lending conditions and economic activity before considering another hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Japan’s Nikkei share average edged lower on Monday as semiconductor-related stocks declined, tracking losses on Wall Street amid weakness in technology shares.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.78% , China A50 was down at 0.49%, South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 1.49%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices eased inflation concerns and reduced pressure on the precious metal, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,010.51 per ounce by 0544 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since mid-July in the previous session. Bullion posted a ?4% weekly fall on Friday, its steepest weekly decline since June.
Oil prices fell on Monday after rallying last week to near six-month highs, as hopes of a possible easing in hostilities between the United States and Iran eased concerns over potential supply disruptions.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $2.23, or 2.16%, at $101.04 per barrel by 0426 ?GMT. Brent crude futures were down $2.21, or 1.89%, at $114.51.