Posted at 16 October 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Sep) 56.5, 53.3 previous
•New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) -0.4%, -0.9% previous
•New Zealand FPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
•New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep) 0.9%, 0.2% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -339.7B, -345.7B previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 3,521.5B, 2,199.7B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Sep) 3.8% forecast, 3.2% previous
• 09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 09:00 EU Trade Balance (Aug) 14.2B previous
• 09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
• 09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) 0.2%, 0.2% previous
• 09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Sep) 2.2% forecast, 2.1% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Sep) 0.4% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Sep) 3.2% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Sep) 104.30 previous
• 10:00 Italy Trade Balance EU (Aug) 1.25B previous
• 10:00 Italy Trade Balance (Aug) 7.500B forecast, 8.240B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No data ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as concerns over AI investments and falling US Treasury yields tempered the dollar’s recent strength.AI-related stocks have suffered sharp losses this week, with the sell-off spreading to parts of the credit market. Investors increasingly fear that data centre operators may struggle to generate sufficient profits in time to service their debt, raising concerns about valuations across the AI supply chain.The euro’s modest recovery comes after it fell more than 3% against the dollar over the previous five weeks, weighed down by concerns over France’s mounting debt burden and the risk of an energy squeeze during winter.Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, stood at 102.07 and was on track for a 0.14% weekly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1250(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1285(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1118(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1035(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday as investors weighed signals from the Federal Reserve on interest rates.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said this week's stronger-than-expected inflation data had been "discouraging", while Fed Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said the Fed might need to hike rates more aggressively if there were a notable deterioration in the public's inflation expectations.The US dollar headed for its first weekly fall in five weeks, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers overseas .Investors are now turning their attention to UK CPI and RPI inflation data due on October 21 and the Autumn Budget scheduled for October 28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3305(38.2%fib ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3359(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards1.3179(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained ground on Friday as investors navigated an uncertain global economic and financial environment. Australian equities rebounded as fears of a broader global market sell-off temporarily eased, providing support to risk-sensitive currencies such as the Aussie.However, concerns over the artificial intelligence investment boom continued to weigh on market sentiment. Reports of a sharp reduction in Anthropic’s projected IPO valuation added to uncertainty surrounding valuations across the technology sector.Investors will also focus on comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent, who is scheduled to participate in an interview on Sunday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6963 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6990(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6876(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6853(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The US dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Friday as traders remained cautious amid concerns over possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that authorities must closely monitor exchange-rate movements, urging her G20 counterparts to remain highly vigilant about currency fluctuations. G20 finance leaders also reaffirmed their commitment to exchange-rate policy during meetings held on the sidelines of the IMF’s annual meetings in Bangkok.The yen’s persistent weakness has heightened intervention risks, particularly as rising fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict increase Japan’s import costs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.56(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.03(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.77(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 156.28(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rebounded on Friday following heavy selling in the previous session, as investors cautiously returned to equity markets after concerns over technology valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) financing triggered a selloff.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.49% , Hang Seng was up at 0.48%, South Korea’s KOSPI was up at 2.08%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Friday as the US dollar weakened, although the precious metal remained on track for a modest weekly decline as investors assessed Federal Reserve signals on the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,177.82 per ounce by 0433 GMT, but was down 0.5% so far in the week. US gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.7% to $4,199.10.
Oil prices eased on Friday ?but were heading for weekly gains on the uncertainty over Middle East supplies and a larger-than-expected crude stocks draw in the United States.
Brent crude futures fell 71 cents, or 0.67%, to $105.21 a barrel by 0352 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 77 cents, or 0.79%, to $97.20.