Posted at 28 September 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Finnish Industrial Confidence (Sep) 3, 5 previous
•Finnish Consumer Confidence (Sep) -4.9, -3.0 previous
•Swedish Trade Balance (Aug) -11.90B, 1.40B previous
•Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) 2.00B, 6.99B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index (Sep) 11.6 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 4.015% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.155% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•17:25 US Fed Governor Cook Speaks
•17:30 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Monday as surging oil prices revived inflation worries ahead of US economic data due later this week. The surge in oil prices revived concerns that energy-driven inflation shocks couldkeep interest rates higher for longer, limiting the room for central banks to ease monetary policy. Investors now await US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index figures, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, as well as August payrolls data, both scheduled to be released later in the week. Central banks have responded to ?oil-driven inflationary pressures with a round of rate hikes, with the European Central Bank raising rates for a second time this year.Investors will also focus on speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave ?Ramsden ?later in the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rebounded against the dollar as investors increased bets on tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England amid persistent inflation pressures.The BoE has so far held back from tightening policy, even as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank have responded to energy-driven inflation pressures with higher interest rates. Rising energy costs and increasingly hawkish signals from BoE policymakers have strengthened expectations of a rate increase as early as November.Money markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the November meeting, which would take the policy rate to 4%. Markets are also pricing in four rate increases by the middle of next year.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday as market attention turned to Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting.The RBA is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 29 meeting, with persistent inflation pressures supporting a hawkish policy outlook. Beyond the rate decision, investors will closely assess the central bank’s guidance on inflation, economic growth and the future path of monetary policy.Markets are currently pricing in around 40 basis points of additional tightening following Tuesday’s decision. Attention will then shift to Australia’s August CPI report due Wednesday, with a Reuters poll forecasting a 0.4% monthly increase and annual inflation of 4.0%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7064 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7134(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7015 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6973(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as markets digested fresh warnings from Japan’s currency authorities over excessive yen weakness.Japan’s top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said markets should take at face value the “very clear” message delivered by Tokyo and Washington last week on the yen, signalling that authorities remain prepared to respond to sharp declines in the currency. Mimura declined to comment on whether Japan could intervene again to support the yen but said he remained neither satisfied nor reassured by its recent moves.His comments reinforced expectations that Tokyo remains on alert for renewed yen weakness and could take action if currency moves become excessive. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.48(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.46(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 156.13(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Monday, supported by a rally in British housebuilders, although gains were capped by a rebound in oil prices and elevated bond yields.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.48 percent, Germany's Dax was up 0.62 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.64 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell more than 3% on Monday to touch its lowest in over seven weeks, as higher oil prices stoked inflation fears, bolstering the case for elevated interest rates.
Spot gold was down 3.1% at $4,155.67 per ounce, as of 1031 GMT, hitting its lowest ?since August 5. US gold futures for December delivery fell 3.1% to $4,188.10.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures were up $1.68, or 1.6%, at $106 barrel by 1320 GMT, after hitting their highest since September 15 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $94.10 a barrel, up $1.69, or 1.8%.