Posted at 21 July 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (May) 147K, 85K forecast, 100K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (May) 4.9%, 4.9% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index + Bonus (May) 4.3%, 4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jun) 6.7K, 29.4K forecast, 1.3K previous
•Switzerland Trade Balance (Jun) 5.224B, 5.989B previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (May) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 11.2 forecast, 9.5 previous
• 10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Jul) -77.8 forecast, -81.0 previous
• 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul) 15.1 forecast, 10.5 previous
• 10:00 German 5-Year Bobl Auction 2.640% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Tuesday as dollar pulled as investors assessed conflict in the Middle East . The U.S. military was starting its ninth straight day of attacks on Iran, which in turn was striking targets across the region. Just a handful of ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and one was reported to be on fire.Brent duly climbed above $90 a barrel for the first time since early June and Treasury bond futures slipped as investors narrowed the odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike, with a September move implied at around 65% . Focus will also be on the European Central Bank's meeting later ?this ?week, where the central bank ?is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. The euro was up 0.1% at $1.1444. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Tuesday following UK employment data that showed signs of stabilisation in the labour market, despite ongoing political uncertainty in Westminster.Official figures showed that annual wage growth and unemployment remained steady in the three months to May, while payroll employment was little changed in June. Average earnings excluding bonuses increased 3.4% year-on-year, matching the previous three-month period and marking the weakest growth rate since October 2020.The wage growth reading was in line with economists’ expectations and is unlikely to increase pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held at 4.9% in the three months to May, slightly below forecasts for a rise to 5.0%, providing some support for sterling. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as gains in gold, silver, copper and improving risk appetite supported Australian dollar. Gold rose more than 1% on Tuesday as hopes of easing U.S.-Iran tensions reduced inflation concerns and influenced Fed rate expectations. Investors are awaiting Australia's June jobs report on Thursday, with employment expected to rise by 15,000 and the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.4%.A weaker-than-expected jobs report could lead traders to pare back expectations for further policy tightening. Attention now turns to Australia's employment report due on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar traded in a narrow range against yen as investors refrained from taking large positions. The threat of Japanese authorities intervening in the currency market continues to limit upside momentum, particularly on moves above 162.Yield spreads have narrowed slightly, with the two-year JGB-U.S. Treasury differential at 269 basis points and the 10-year spread at 183 basis points, reducing some of the dollar's yield advantage.Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi pledged to boost investment in growth sectors in her first economic blueprint on Tuesday, though rising bond yields highlighted concerns over potential government influence on monetary policy.Takaichi's administration has struggled to dispel market concerns that it could increase spending and pressure the Bank of Japan to delay interest rate hikes, helping keep borrowing costs low for Japan's massive debt burden. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks ended a three-day losing streak on Tuesday as easing Middle East tensions pushed oil prices lower, while investors awaited corporate earnings to gauge the strength of the AI-driven market rally.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 3.29% , KOSPI was up at 3.54 %, China A50 was up at 2.41%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed more than 1% on Tuesday as investors assessed U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments, with potential easing of tensions raising hopes of lower oil-driven inflation pressures and shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.
Spot gold rose 1.2% to $4,054.24 per ounce as of ?0529 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up 1.1% at $4,059.10.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets weighed U.S.-Iran mediation efforts against renewed attacks and threats of a naval blockade by Yemen's Houthis.
Brent crude futures fell 96 cents, or 1.1%, to $88.26 per barrel by 0630 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 73 cents, or 0.9%, ?to $82.50 per barrel,