Posted at 20 July 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Jun) 23M ,250M forecast, 577M previous
• New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Jun)-3,750M, -3,610M previous
• New Zealand Imports (Jun) 8.07B, 8.07B previous
• New Zealand Exports (Jun) 8.09B, 8.65B previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Jul)3.50%, 3.50% forecast,3.50% previous
•China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%,3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 German PPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•07:00 German PPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.2% previous
•10:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (May) 0.57% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Monday as dollar pulled as investors assessed conflict in the Middle East . The U.S. military was starting its ninth straight day of attacks on Iran, which in turn was striking targets across the region. Just a handful of ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and one was reported to be on fire.Brent duly climbed above $90 a barrel for the first time since early June and Treasury bond futures slipped as investors narrowed the odds on a Federal Reserve rate hike, with a September move implied at around 65% . Focus will also be on the European Central Bank's meeting later ?this ?week, where the central bank ?is widely expected to hold interest rates steady. The euro was up 0.1% at $1.1444. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound traded broadly steady on Monday as markets awaited the formal transition of power from Keir Starmer to Andy Burnham, who is set to become the UK's next prime minister. Investors are also closely watching the appointment of the new chancellor, with the choice expected to provide important clues on the government's fiscal strategy.Starmer is scheduled to deliver a farewell speech outside 10 Downing Street before formally tendering his resignation to King Charles. Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, will then meet the monarch to be invited to form a new government.The incoming prime minister faces several economic challenges, including sluggish growth, persistent fiscal concerns and the need to restore investor confidence. As a result, the appointment of the next finance minister could play a key role in shaping sterling's near-term direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Monday as broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar offset concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The U.S. military carried out a ninth straight day of strikes on Iran, while Tehran responded with attacks on targets across the region, further intensifying the conflict.Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have deepened after the United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and Iran targeted commercial vessels, heightening fears of supply disruptions and driving oil prices sharply higher.The surge in crude prices has strengthened expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could deliver another interest rate hike this year after raising the cash rate to 4.35% through three consecutive increases. Financial markets are now pricing a 76% chance of an additional rate hike by December.Attention now turns to Australia's employment report due on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar hovered near 40 year low on Monday as the escalating US-Iran conflict investors cautious.Brent crude climbed 3% to cross $90 a barrel for the first time in more than a month as the U.S. military started a ninth straight day of attacks against Iran, which in turn struck targets across the region. Higher oil prices tend to pressure the yen due to Japan's heavy reliance on energy imports. However, traders remain alert for potential Japanese intervention, particularly with domestic markets closed for a holiday, as thinner liquidity could provide Tokyo with an opportunity to support the currency.Meanwhile, Japan's latest economic policy blueprint reaffirmed that monetary policy decisions will remain the responsibility of the Bank of Japan, signaling no shift in the government's stance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian share markets were hesitant on Monday as the escalating conflict in the Gulf lifted oil prices and fanned fears of inflation, while a packed week of major tech earnings will further test investor faith in the AI trade.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 4.03% , Hang Seng was up at 2.23%, China A50 was down at 4.46%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Monday as investors weighed the impact of escalating conflict in the Middle East, which drove oil prices sharply higher, against expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated.
Spot ?gold was steady at $4,018.19 per ounce, as of 0756 GMT. U.S. gold ?futures for August delivery gained 0.1% to $4,023.
Oil prices climbed on Monday to their highest level in more than a month, with Brent crude topping $90 a barrel as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures were up $1.03, or 1.17%, at $89.13 a barrel by 0751 GMT, touching their highest since June 11 and extending last week's hefty 15.9% gains. That was Brent's biggest weekly gain since April.