Posted at 15 July 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US NFIB Small Business Optimism (Jun) 97.4, 95.8 forecast, 95.3 previous
•US ADP Employment Change Weekly 19.80K, 21.00K previous
•US CPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.4%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
•US CPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.5%, 3.8% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 2.6%, 2.8% forecast, 2.9% previous
•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Jun) 333.95, 334.70 forecast, 335.12 previous
•US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jun) -0.35%, 0.63% previous
•US Core CPI Index (Jun) 336.07, 336.12 previous
•US CPI Index, s.a (Jun) 332.57, 333.98 previous
•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Jun) 0.8%, -0.2% previous
•US Redbook (YoY) 8.2%, 11.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 03:00 China GDP (YoY) (Q2) 5.0% previous
•03:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jun) -5.0% forecast, -4.1% previous
•03:00 China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q2) 4.5% forecast, 5.0% previous
•03:00 China GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9% forecast, 1.3% previous
•03:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) 4.7% forecast, 4.5% previous
•03:00 China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jun) 5.1% forecast, 5.1% previous
•03:00 China Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jun) 5.4% previous
•03:00 China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Jun) 1.41% previous
•03:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -0.1% forecast, -0.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•03:00 China NBS Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro rose higher against dollar on Tuesday after U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June, ruling out an interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year. The data showed that the consumer price index rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, below Reuters-polled economists' forecast of 3.8%.Following the report, traders sharply pared back expectations for near-term policy tightening, with a 15% chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, down from 35% before the data. . Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to begintwo days of testimony in Congress later Tuesday. He will tell lawmakers on the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in his first hearing that the central bank has "no tolerance" for persistently elevated inflation, according to his prepared remarks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound rose higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could adopt a less hawkish stance on interest rates.The Consumer Price Index increased by a still-high 3.5% in the 12 months through June after surging 4.2% in May, the report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.Excluding food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased 2.6% on a year-on-year basis in June after rising 2.9% in May. Compared to the prior month, the core CPI, which analysts see as a guide to underlying inflation pressures, was unchanged.The benign readings may help assuage worries at the Fed that high oil prices from months of conflict in the Middle East are accelerating inflation in a more persistent manner, requiring a response from the U.S. central bank.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesda as the greenback slumped on cooler-than-expected inflation in the United States.U.S. inflation for June came in at 3.5 per cent year over year, beating economists' expectations of 3.8 per cent and down from the 4.2 per cent increase recorded in May. The core measure was flat month over month versus calls for it to rise to 0.2 per cent.A softer-than-anticipated U.S. inflation reading tempered bets of a rate ?hike by the Federal Reserve and boosted risk appetite.Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4135(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4180(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4019(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3908(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the yen on Tuesday after softer-than-expected inflation data fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could take a less hawkish stance on interest rates.The Labor Department data showed that the consumer price index rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, below Reuters-polled economists' forecast of 3.8%. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.4%, compared with expectations for a 0.1% decline.Following the report, traders sharply pared back expectations for near-term policy tightening. They see about a 15% chance of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed's upcoming meeting, down from 35% before the data.Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress at 10 a.m. ET.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares closed higher on Tuesday after softer U.S. inflation eased Fed rate hike bets, though gains were limited by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and higher oil prices..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.30percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.03 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Tuesday as strong bank earnings and softer U.S. inflation boosted risk appetite despite escalating Middle East tensions.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.02% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.90 % percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.90% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose more than 2% on Tuesday after softer U.S. inflation data boosted expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve..
Spot gold was up 1.6% at $4,063.78 per ounce by 1:30 p.m. EDT (1730 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since July 1 earlier in the session.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices rose about 2% to a one-month high on Tuesday after the U.S. reinstated a naval blockade on Iran, threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose $1.43, or 1.7%, to settle at $84.73 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.20, or 1.5%, to settle at $79.34.