Posted at 12 February 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.0%, 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•UK GDP (MoM) (Dec) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -0.9%, -0.1% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Dec) -0.5%, -0.2% forecast, 1.9% previous
•UK Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Dec) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, -0.1% previous
•UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) -2.7%, 0.4% forecast, 1.6% previous
• UK Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec) -10.99B, -11.33B previous
•UK Trade Balance (Dec) -22.72B, -22.30B forecast, -23.58B previous
•UK Construction Output (MoM) (Dec) -0.5%, 0.5% forecast, -0.8% previous
•UK Construction Output (YoY) (Dec) -0.3%, 0.0% forecast, -0.3% previous
•UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) 2.0%, 2.5% previous
•UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Dec) 0.5%, 1.8% forecast, 1.3% previous
•UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec) 0.5%, 1.5% forecast, 2.3% previous
•UK GDP (YoY) (Dec) 0.7%, 1.1% forecast, 1.2% previous
•UK Index of Services 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 222K forecast, 231K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,850K forecast, 1,844K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.25K previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (Jan) 4.16M forecast,4.35M previous
•15:00 US Existing Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) 5.1% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -256B forecast,-360B previous
•16:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.630% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.630% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•19:30 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday a day after robust jobs growth and a drop in unemployment eased worries about the U.S. economy.Traders took comfort from signs of a resilient economy despite dialing back bets on interest-rate cuts after the data was released. At least one reduction is still expected in June, but chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve holding borrowing costs steady have risen to almost 40% from 24.8% earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.Weekly jobless claims data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits decreased less than expected last week.The next big data indicator is January's Consumer Price Index inflation report, which is due on Friday and could alter expectations for the central bank's rate plans. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1872(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1974(Jan 30th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1783(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1724(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged up against the dollar on Thursday even as data showed that the UK economy barely expanded in the last quarter of 2025 and markets took stock of Britain's simmering political crisis.Some tensions about Starmer's future appear to have eased, with the prime minister on Tuesday pledging never to walk away from his job. Britain's economy barely grew in the final quarter of 2025 as activity fared worse than initially estimated during the run-up to finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget, official figures showed on Thursday.Gross domestic product grew by 0.1% in the October-to-December period, the same slow pace as in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3663(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3733(Feb 4th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3583 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3512(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied near three-year peak on Thursday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled a continued hawkish stance. Australia’s central bank governor said on Thursday that further rate hikes remain possible if inflation becomes persistent, after delivering its first increase in two years last week. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said it is not yet clear whether more rate hikes will be needed to curb inflation, adding that policymakers will closely monitor incoming data.The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% last week, partially unwinding last year’s easing. Core inflation rose to 3.4% in the previous quarter the quickest pace in more than a year and is projected by the RBA to climb to 3.7% in 2026.Markets now imply about an 80% chance the RBA will hike the 3.85% cash rate at its May board meeting, and a 60% probability rates could end the year at 4.35%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7202(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7068(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday as dollar found some footing after a surprisingly strong U.S. jobs report eroded near-term rate cut expectations, while caution ahead of inflation data at the end of the week dented the dollar.The U.S. economy created almost twice as many jobs in January as expected, Wednesday's report showed, allaying some concern over a softening labour market. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut of at least 25 basis points in March had risen to about 20% before the jobs data, but retreated to about 5%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. U.S. inflation data is due on Friday and will be the next test of market views on interest rate cuts.Immediate resistance can be seen at 153.65(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.89 (Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 151.29 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a record high on Thursday, led by gains in luxury goods and AI hardware stocks following positive earnings reports.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.23 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.97 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices ticked lower on Thursday, after unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs data for January tempered expectations of more near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold edged 0.3% lower to $5,062.83 per ounce by 1159 GMT. U.S. gold futures for April delivery fell 0.3%to $5,084.30 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as investors weighed the International Energy Agency’s lowered global oil demand forecast for 2026 against risks of escalating U.S.–Iran tensions.
Brent crude oil futures were down 19 cents, or 0.27%, at $69.21 a barrel by 1232 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 8 cents, or 0.12%, to $64.55.
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