Posted at 26 June 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Business Confidence (Jun)88.4, 88.4 forecast,87.9 previous
• Italian Consumer Confidence (Jun) 92.4, 94.5 forecast, 93.4 previous
• Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 3.63%, 3.77% previous
• Italian 5-Year BTP Auction 3.03%, 3.16% previous
•France Jobseekers Total (May) 3,115.6K, 3,100.1K previous
•Canada Wholesale Sales (May): -0.7%, 0.6% previous.
•Canada Wholesale Sales (May): -0.7%, 0.6% previous.
•U.S. Retail Inventories Ex Autos (May): 0.4%, 0.7% previous.
•U.S. Goods Trade Balance (May): -$105.80B, -$85.00B forecast, -$83.01B previous.
•U.S. Wholesale Inventories (May): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous.
•U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun): 4.6%, 4.6% forecast, 4.8% previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jun): 49.5, 48.9 forecast, 44.8 previous.
•U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jun): 3.3%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jun): 50.7, 49.3 forecast, 44.1 previous.
•U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Jun): 47.7, 48.4 forecast, 45.8 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 433 previous.
•18:00 Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 563 previous.
•Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar was supported by growing expectations of higher U.S. interest rates . The currency is the top performer at the halfway point of the year, gaining 3% , a stark reversal from last year when it dropped over 10% in its worst first-half performance since the early 1970s amid U.S. tariff pressures. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. inflation increased ?further in May, breaking ?above 4.0% for ?the first time in three years, as forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.Traders expect three Fed rate hikes this year and are pricing in about a 64% chance of a September increase, according to the CME FedWatch ?Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1487(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1577(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1357(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1329(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher on Friday as a decline in oil prices weighed on the safe-haven U.S. dollar and lifted risk-sensitive currencies. Sterling had traded above the 1.3400 level before last week's hawkish Federal Reserve decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, which boosted the dollar and pressured major currencies. Fresh reports that Warsh has appointed two veteran Federal Reserve economists as advisers reinforced expectations that the central bank will maintain a restrictive policy stance. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting a speech from incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Monday for further clues on the government's economic and fiscal priorities. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3326(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3373(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3163(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3135(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased against dollar on Friday as broad decline across key commodities, with Brent crude falling 1.7%, gold down 0.7%, silver dropping 2.7%, and iron ore easing 0.9%. Sentiment was also influenced by geopolitical and supply-side developments, including reports that Iraq has threatened to leave OPEC if its oil production quota is not raised, adding uncertainty to the crude outlook.On the policy front, expectations of potential Federal Reserve tightening remained in play following the latest U.S. PCE inflation data, keeping the U.S. dollar supported. Meanwhile, attention is shifting to upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia communications, with Governor Michele Bullock set to join a Swiss panel discussion late Sunday and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent scheduled to speak in Sydney early Monday, both of which could provide fresh guidance on the RBA’s policy stance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6934(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6868(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6813(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against yen on Friday as expectations for further Bank of Japan rate hikes and intervention risks support the Japanese currency. Market participants remained alert to the risk of Japanese foreign exchange intervention, although authorities have so far refrained from acting despite the yen's continued weakness. Investors believe the Ministry of Finance may see limited benefits from intervention given the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar, while others argue that any sharp move beyond 162.00 could force officials to step in to curb excessive volatility.Tokyo’s annual core inflation accelerated in June, Friday data revealed, indicating growing price pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict and keeping the central bank on course to consider more rate hikes.Tokyo’s core consumer price index (CPI), excluding volatile fresh food items, increased 1.6% in June from a year earlier, data released on Friday showed, matching the median market forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen at 161.93(June 25th high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 162.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 161.21(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 160.13(SAM 20).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Friday, with technology shares tracking global sector weakness, while Zalando fell after Germany's financial regulator launched a probe into the retailer's accounts.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.33 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 1.53 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.79 percent.
Commodities Recap
Crude prices plunged by ?about 3% on Friday, on course for steep weekly losses, as more oil tankers exited the Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns, even though a cargo vessel was hit near Oman on Thursday.
Brent crude futures fell $2.42, or 3.2%, to $72.84 a barrel by 1323 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate lost $1.97, or 2.7%, to $69.95.
Gold edged higher on Friday as the dollar weakened and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data, though prices were still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline.
Spot gold was up 0.51% to $4,046.70 per ounce by 9:39 a.m. EDT (1339 GMT).U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.35% to $4,061.40 per ounce.