Posted at 12 May 2026 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): -9.1, -21.6 forecast, -20.4 previous.
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May): -10.2, -19.2 forecast, -17.2 previous.
• German ZEW Current Conditions (May): -77.8, -77.5 forecast, -73.7 previous.
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly: 33.00K, no forecast, 39.25K previous.
• US CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.9% previous.
• US CPI (YoY) (Apr): 3.8%, 3.7% forecast, 3.3% previous.
• US Core CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
• US Core CPI (YoY) (Apr): 2.8%, 2.7% forecast, 2.6% previous.
• US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Apr): 333.02, 330.21 previous.
• US Core CPI Index (Apr): 335.42, 334.17 previous.
• US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Apr): 0.85%, 1.05% previous.
• US CPI Index, s.a (Apr): 332.41, 330.29 previous.
• US Real Earnings (MoM) (Apr): -0.2%, no forecast, -0.9% previous.
• US Redbook (YoY): 9.6%, 7.8% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•19:00 US Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 157.2B previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•18:00 US Fed Goolsbee Speaks
•18:30 UK BoE Deputy Governor Woods Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as after U.S. economic data showed inflation accelerated at a brisk pace, while uncertainty over the durability of a ceasefire in the Iran war also boosted the safe-haven greenback.The Labor Department said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.6% last month, matching the estimate of economists polled by Reuters, after surging 0.9% in March.In the 12 months through April, the CPI advanced 3.8%, marking the biggest year-on-year increase since May 2023 and a touch above the 3.7% forecast, after a 3.3% rise in March. Meanwhile,hopes for a peace deal on Iran faded on Tuesday, however, after Donald Trump said a ceasefire with Iran was "on life support" as Tehran rejected a U.S. proposal to end the conflict and stuck to a list of demands the U.S. president described as "garbage." Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1812(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1828(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1736(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1705(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as markets kept a close watch on political developments, amid growing concern that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer could step down.Starmer was ?consulting colleagues about whether he can ?stay on as prime minister on ?Tuesday ahead of a crunch cabinet meeting ?that comes after ministerial aides quit and ?almost 80 lawmakers publicly called for him to go. Investors have been concerned that if ?Starmer is forced out, he would ?be ?replaced by a more left-leaning Labour leader, who might increase public borrowing, which would ?put ?even more pressure on ?Britain's already fragile finances and hit bond and currency markets. Sterling was down 0.45% at $1.3550. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3620(Higher BB ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3682(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3462(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3409(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar eased on Tuesday as investors continued to assess the evolving Middle East conflict and its implications for global risk sentiment.The pair continues to maintain an underlying bullish tone, although near-term direction is likely to remain heavily dependent on headlines surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and energy market developments.Attention now turns to several key domestic and U.S. economic events this week. Australia’s federal budget, due Tuesday, will be closely watched for any measures that could add to inflation pressures.The U.S. April CPI report is expected to show inflation rising 0.6% month-on-month and 3.7% year-on-year.Further focus will shift to Australia’s Q1 Wage Price Index on Wednesday, which could provide fresh insight into persistent services inflation and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7271(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7297(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7184(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7115(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Tuesday after the U.S. and Japan reaffirmed “constant and robust” coordination against excessive currency volatility.Japan and the U.S. reaffirmed close coordination on currency markets, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said after talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday.Having reportedly spent around $63.7 billion intervening in currency markets, Tokyo is seen relying on Scott Bessent’s visit to reinforce market confidence through supportive messaging from Washington.BOJ board members leaned more hawkish in April, with one policymaker pointing to a potential June rate hike as the Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher.Minutes from the BOJ’s April meeting showed a divide on the board, with some favouring patience while others saw mounting inflation risks warranting near-term tightening.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.58(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.81(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.82(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European ?shares fell on Tuesday as fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal pushed oil prices higher and kept investors on edge.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.09 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.83percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were under pressure on Tuesday as fading hopes for an Iran peace deal pushed oil prices higher, adding to concerns about inflation and the prospect of higher global interest rates.
Spot gold fell 1% to $4,685.99 per ounce by 1320 GMT. U.S. gold futures lost 0.7% to $4,693.90.
Oil prices rose by more than 3 percent as stark differences between the US ?and Iran on a proposal to end the war in the Middle East pushed supply concerns back into the spotlight, Al Jazeera reported.
Brent crude futures gained $3.47, or 3.3 percent, to $107.68 a barrel by 10:45 GMT and US West Texas ?Intermediate was up $3.54, or 3.6 percent, at $101.61. Both benchmarks climbed nearly 3 percent on Monday.